Super Long Range Forecast

[SkySurfnSnow]

Well, well, well. The GFS and GFDL models have a tropical cyclone forming off the SC coast within the next 48 hours. As of tonights' Sattelite run and Quickscat information and the fact that pressures are falling in the this area, it appears that a cyclone may be forming as we speak. NHC has classified this disturbance as Invest 99 and is planning on having a Hurricane Hunter on standby for a possible recon tommorrow.

Beside all the above, it appears on the Super Long Range that this system may meander just offshore for awhile creating nice SE fetch from it's interaction with a strengthening 1028 ridge sliding SE across Bermuda. Watch out OBX and Mid-Atlantic! IF the models hold true, you may start feeling some pre-runner SE swell of 9 sec@1.5 feet on Thursday. With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.

Keep your fingers crossed. I think that Big Kahuna has made us suffer long enough...see ya out there!

[bsurf1]

i hope and pray it holds true

[Swellinfo]

Showing potential.

But don't get a head of yourself, the models have been varying quite dramatically with each run.

[South Bethany]

With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.


Sweet! best case waist-chest high. :rolleyes:

[Swellinfo]

GFDL model is showing some real potential this morning.

PS. The swellinfo model doesn't handle hurricane winds at this point, so if there is tropical development, the forecasts are undercall at this point.

[quietflightsurfr89]

does this have to do with anything concerning saturday

[Swellinfo]

yes, latest run showing potential for the weekend.

[beaner]

looks pretty sweet...maybe good waves for the NYBB pro. micah, what makes the models differ from each other? in otherwords why do the gfs, gfdl, etc often contradict each other?

[Swellinfo]

The GFS is a global model, whereas the GFDL take a small grid of winds that are taken from hurricane hunters and such to model tropical cyclones.

In such tropical storm cases, the GFDL forecasts generally provide a better picture and are helpful for swell predictions.

As mentioned, the Swellinfo model can't currently handle the GFDL winds. The best thing to look at for these scenarios is the Wavewatch hurricane model.

Go to:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_int.html

Select NAH US coastal zoom, and click on the point forecasts -> NAH stands for North Atlantic hurricane.

Would like to get a Swellinfo hurricane model going, but that isn't going happen this year unfortunately.

[OBlove]

Well, well, well. The GFS and GFDL models have a tropical cyclone forming off the SC coast within the next 48 hours. As of tonights' Sattelite run and Quickscat information and the fact that pressures are falling in the this area, it appears that a cyclone may be forming as we speak. NHC has classified this disturbance as Invest 99 and is planning on having a Hurricane Hunter on standby for a possible recon tommorrow.

Beside all the above, it appears on the Super Long Range that this system may meander just offshore for awhile creating nice SE fetch from it's interaction with a strengthening 1028 ridge sliding SE across Bermuda. Watch out OBX and Mid-Atlantic! IF the models hold true, you may start feeling some pre-runner SE swell of 9 sec@1.5 feet on Thursday. With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.

Keep your fingers crossed. I think that Big Kahuna has made us suffer long enough...see ya out there!

What ever happened to looking at the cam or just checking the surf? wow. this tech stuff has gotton out of hand! micah you need to stop this madness! LOL:)

[Lumpy]

Beaner!!!!

[SkySurfnSnow]

As of tonight, models still in agreement for a said swell event Friday through Monday. Since I am driving from DC, it still early to begin looking for places to stay along the DelMarVa for the weekend adventure. Currents GFDL model has the system swinging by the Pennisula on Sunday into Monday so you just never know. Just got a new XTR2 board from WRV and I can't wait to use it in some juice.

[Swellinfo]

Nice... your stoked.. I'm feeling hopeful for this one as well.

As of tonight, models still in agreement for a said swell event Friday through Monday. Since I am driving from DC, it still early to begin looking for places to stay along the DelMarVa for the weekend adventure. Currents GFDL model has the system swinging by the Pennisula on Sunday into Monday so you just never know. Just got a new XTR2 board from WRV and I can't wait to use it in some juice.

[Chris Joyner]

Nice... your stoked.. I'm feeling hopeful for this one as well.

You coming down to the spot?

[Swellinfo]

If all goes well :)

[Chris Joyner]

If all goes well :)

Cool, I'll be filming for sure.

[SkySurfnSnow]

To beat a dead horse even further from a discussion we all had about 9 mnths ago, is this spot near where I'll be? niri

[Chris Joyner]

To beat a dead horse even further from a discussion we all had about 9 mnths ago, is this spot near where I'll be? niri

It is near there....

[rDJ]

When is this thing gonna go Tropical???

Morning update still says "within a few days"???

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
29N72W AT 05/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN 150/180 NM
OF A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 31N69W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE.


Also, the projected path by WW3 and Swellinfo show this thing hugging the coast. I just don't know if I buy that.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

If you look at the radar it has definite eastward movement, but yet WW3 48 hr model and swellinfo show it parked on top of Hatteras.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_int.html

Just seems like a path east of Bermuda is more likely. Either way we get waves, but what do I know.


Never fear though...
There are two more tropical waves proving that the sleeping beast in the Atlantic has awoken:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N
FROM 28W-45W OVERTAKING THE 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 30W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY
SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

[rDJ]

Wow, GFDL model shows it heading east and strengthening to a Tropical storm tonight then hooking west back towards the east coast on Friday as a Cat 1 'Caine and building up to a Cat 3 on Sunday night!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

By the way, the delay time on this site from when you submit a post to when it appears is extremely annoying. But so far this site is worth it.:)

[Swellinfo]

Hey RdJ,

FYI. the only time there is a delay of posts is when you post links. I moderate all posts with links, or else tons of spam will be everywhere. The spam recently, has been pretty minimal, so maybe I can take off the moderation. But, that is the only time there is a delay.

Also, Swellinfo and the normal Wavewatch Atlantic model use winds projected by the GFS weather model.

Both the GFS and GFDL indicate a NW shift that will start over the next 24 hours:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html

[South Bethany]

None of the dates and times in this image make sense to me...

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200799_model_zoom.gif

[Swellinfo]

Those times/dates appear to be in error.

[rDJ]

You're probably better off monitoring for spam and keeping this site on point. Don't mind my complaining.;)

Both the GFDL and NOGAPS show potential for landfall between Georgia and NC and judging by the GFDL it could be a cat 2 when it hits! The GFS looks most favorable with the potential to give us surf well into next week. I'm guessing that once it hooks back west the models will be in better agreement.

[chubbyG]

You're probably better off monitoring for spam and keeping this site on point. Don't mind my complaining.;)

Both the GFDL and NOGAPS show potential for landfall between Georgia and NC and judging by the GFDL it could be a cat 2 when it hits! The GFS looks most favorable with the potential to give us surf well into next week. I'm guessing that once it hooks back west the models will be in better agreement.
agreed on both points... monitoring and model reconciliation... winds could be an issue, but there should be swell, regardless (and a crowd or two at the sheltered spots)...

[rDJ]

I think those winds will partially depend on how close it gets to land. I'm guessing the further away from the coast, the better the winds will be.

[Lumpy]

LBAR? Who created this model? Just curious...

It seems to be the winning model right now. Shear is beating the daylights out of Invest99 at 1:30pm Wednesday....

[rDJ]

It's taking it's good ol' time to form out there. Can't seem to shed that surface trough and develop around the circulation center. GFDL now shows it developing into a tropical storm and hitting NC on Sat night or Sun morning, then hooking back off the coast to reach cat 1 speed by Tues. Winds are still lingering in the 35 - 40 mph range, but as long as it has that frontal boundary it's still only sub-tropical. I think today could make or break this system.

We still have that other wave off Africa that is slowly developing. That could bring some fun for next weekend, but still way too early to tell.

[ritecoastsurfer3]

man 3 pages of paragraph long posts about gfs ww plabs etc, updated 10 times a day we all must be desperate! I'll be floored when the waves come but for jersey it looks like another SE swell with a NE wind :( i swear the nasa is screwing with the weather i think last week or the one before we had NE wind hard for 3 days and got a SE swell it was all crossed up and weird, and i was out fluking in the kayak last night with a NE wind and I was drifting north?!? one or the other! it gets really annoying when its crossed up chop/swell combo unless your at a place where NE is offshore but it's better than nothing!

[rDJ]

Sunday and Monday could be a bust due to hard NE winds depending on how it tracks. GFS, BAMM and LBAR models keep it offshore which is good for us and especially good for NC. I wouldn't want to be on OBX if this thing makes landfall. That front is still pulling it eastward and creating to much shear for the storm to center, but it's predicted to break away today. I think the further east the system is when the front breaks away, the less likely it will be to hit land. That GFS model is looking real good.

[rDJ]

Latest satelite images look like it's starting to break away from the front. Front is moving NE while the storm is pulling SE and it appears there already may be a bit of organization around a circulation center. This could be it. Once it starts to spin and head back west we should have a better idea of how it will affect surf and if it will hit land.

[rDJ]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atldefault/index_large_animated.html

[rDJ]

Gabrielle still taking her good ol' time. Less organized today? Sat image looked more organized to me. Not a good sign for the weekend.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS CENTERED NEAR 29N69W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. THE LOW HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIS LOW HIGHLY ELONGATED AND STRETCHED
NE-SW ALONG A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N78W. IR IMAGES
AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE
W OF THE LOW/TROUGH. THE INTERACTION WITH THIS UPPER LOW HAS
GENERALLY MADE THIS SYSTEM LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[WeekendWarriorMdVaNc]

Swellinfo,

I think i remember you saying that the swell model can't handle hurricane or tropical winds...so should we be relying on any of the models to any extent at this point? Im trying to make the call to head to Ocean City, Md, or the OBX. If this turns out to be extratropical (a low pressure with the strongest winds further away from the center) it could turn out to be a lot like that one we got in early June, which was sick for Ocean City. Any thoughts?

[Lumpy]

Looking more like a cold front than a low pressure to me...
Although the visible loop ending at 18:45UTC is showing a swirl (possibly low-level based on the HDW-low wind feature in NOAA satellite imagery).

[Artie]

Bottom line on this one is that we seem to have a real problem with local winds throughout the swell event. There are a couple of spots that'll work but most won't. I'm hoping that the marine forecast changes for the better.

[rDJ]

Looking more like a cold front than a low pressure to me...
Although the visible loop ending at 18:45UTC is showing a swirl (possibly low-level based on the HDW-low wind feature in NOAA satellite imagery).

Looks like a lower level L shape to me, which could be a good sign for future development, but those upper level winds are still tearing it apart. If you stare at it long enough it even appears to have some slight westward movement which might get it away from that front and allow it to develop. If it does it likely wont have time to reach 'caine speeds before hitting the coast (NC maybe).

[rDJ]

Bottom line on this one is that we seem to have a real problem with local winds throughout the swell event. There are a couple of spots that'll work but most won't. I'm hoping that the marine forecast changes for the better.

Agreed. There will likely be a small window of oportunity before and after it passes over land, but not much. I think the oportunity for favorable wind is better after it goes back out to sea.

[Lumpy]

Micah's model just updated with a different picture. Less than optimistic picture...I'm gonna drive myself nuts looking at this....

[SkySurfnSnow]

Looks like a lower level L shape to me, which could be a good sign for future development, but those upper level winds are still tearing it apart. If you stare at it long enough it even appears to have some slight westward movement which might get it away from that front and allow it to develop. If it does it likely wont have time to reach 'caine speeds before hitting the coast (NC maybe).

R2D2 funny on "staring at it long enough". This thread really has brought out all desparity in us wave riders. My hopeful prognosis lines up as follows:

Subtropical Storm to move WNW through Friday night all while slooooooowwwwlllyyy strengthening until Saturday morning afternoon. Then by Saturday night the wind field gradient will tighten and develop a nice 300 miles fetch of SE'sterly Beaufort 7 winds. Seas still modeled @ > 4 meters( 13'+) directed on a 140 degree path towards the OBX and 150 degrees towards Seacrets. I suspect that Sunday AM will have bumpy beginnings in the chest to head high zone with switching sideshore wind and finally offshore by late afternoon once the whatever you call it system swings by. With that wind and swell direction along the DelMarVa there are goin to be some stand up righthanded barrels.

See ya'll out there giggling and carrying on!!!

[surferboi0911]

haha nicely put...

[SkySurfnSnow]

If we don't get swell from this coastal storm, our attention should be looking at the cutoff low sitting in the middle of the Atlantic about 900 miles EENE of DelmarVA.
Of course the models, and I use them loosely, have that Low getting deeper that the tropical thing and it does not appear to move anywhere anytime soon.

If things hold together, we should start seeing some small to medium size 12 second surf beginning on Tuesday and holding through the following weekend.

Key word IF

[surferboi0911]

9:30am, the Weather Channel says.........

Thanks to lessening shear and increasingly more thunderstorms in its circulation, the low could organize into a tropical depression by late today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.

Forecasts continue to insist that the low pressure will approach the Carolina Coast, and then turn north and northeast.

This will continue to heighten the threat of rip currents from the Atlantic beaches of Florida to the Delmarva. Waves through the weekend will be running around 10 feet, with up to 15 feet possible along the Outer Banks.

Depending on how well the low pressure can organize, and how close it comes to the coastal areas, will determine if showers or rain will impact some parts of the eastern Carolinas, and perhaps the southeastern Mid-Atlantic. Right now the best chance looks to be Sunday into Monday.

[rDJ]

Copied from Weather Underground:

An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown much better organized over the past six hours, thanks to an decrease in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are still creating about 15-20 knots of wind shear over 99L, but satellite loops of 99L show that a more organized circulation has formed, with heavy thunderstorm activity starting to build north of the center. The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 5pm EDT today. NHC issued this special advisory at 8:45am today:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[beaner]

This is all well and good but keep in mind that this swell isn't going to be epic by any stretch of the imagination, particularly because the winds look like ****. Well, maybe it'll be good in some areas of the mid-atlantic but i have a strange feeling that MD north isn't going to see too much action.

on another note it'll be nice to have some waves...

[Lumpy]

Yesterday this looked like garbage...today there is hope.... Looks like it moving to the west though ( http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html ). Now we may be wishing for the cold front to be a little closer to the coast if this thing keeps on moving to the west... Quikscat is showing most of the fetch aimed at southern NC through Florida right now though...

Oh well...Keep 'em crossed!!!

[headrow]

yeah...looks like a wsw movement from that