is this really hurricane season

[rustysrfr]

um so is anyone else digusted with the lack of hurricanes this season to produce amazing swell for the midatlantic region. noaa is still predicting above average activity for october, but nothing is in sight. beside a few scattered weeks this fall and summer, the only consistent surfing i can remember is back in the spring. what is up with our weathe!!???

[Swellinfo]

Well, were up to "N" now (14 named storms), so the quantity is there, just not anything of any significance for swell production. And, in general, after the middle of October, the chance for tropical develpment declines signficantly (allthough late season storms have been popping up over the last few years).

Despite last weeks swell, its been a very lame start to the fall season compared to most Falls.

[rustysrfr]

i think its also due to the shift in jet stream that has caused this somewhat of a dry spell. even if a storm did head this way i think it would lose power steadily due to lack of moisture.

[Darealm]

Upper level wind shear has been a big issue this season. Also, scientists have predicted that global warming will bring increased wind shear across the middle Atlantic, which means less storms in the future.

[Swellinfo]

Upper level wind shear has been a big issue this season. Also, scientists have predicted that global warming will bring increased wind shear across the middle Atlantic, which means less storms in the future.

I've never heard of the correlation between global warming and less hurricanes... Do you have a link or reference to this? Much research indicates an increase in storms due to rise in Sea surface temps.

[Kinkyreggae41]

i just hope this winter is decent cause this fall is serioulsy a big let down

[Darealm]

Here is a link to the NOAA article describing the increased wind shear attributed to global warming.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2840.htm

[Eastsurfin]

..............the only consistent surfing i can remember is back in the spring.....

God what I would do to have Springtime back.............Springtime this year was the best I can ever remember while summer is the worst I can ever remember. (i know summer sucks, maybe the right term would be hurricane season). At any rate, springtime kicked ass and hopefully fall will also. We all know that winter will produce so forget the past live for the future!!

[Swellinfo]

Here is a link to the NOAA article describing the increased wind shear attributed to global warming.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2840.htm

Thanks for the article... Thats the first I heard the link of global warming to increased wind shear, and that is definitely a significant factor...

The other thing to take into note when talking about climate change and the link between weather phenomenon, is that we need to think about it on a longer time scale than just one single hurricane season. The last few years have been well above average in quantity and intensity, so just because there haven't been many storms that take that track from the eastern tropics towards the east coast this particular year doesn't indicate much. If we saw this pattern continue for the next decade, then that is obviously much more significant of a pattern.

[CharlieInOC]

1st the scientists claimed global warming would cause more storms and that they would become stronger, now they claim that global warming is reducing the storms this year. How many times have we heard claims of hyper active huricane years only to experience little or no activity. If anyone thinks for a moment that these "Experts" have a real clue as to the causes and effects of our ever changing environment you are delusional. We live on a very dynamic planet, 400 million years ago the entire surface of the planet was covered in a 1 mile thick layer of ice at other times it has been at a boil. We humans have been here for not even a blink of the eye in terms of geological time. A billion years from now, we won't even be a memory. ENOUGH ALREADY ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING BEING THE CAUSE OF EVERY PERCEIVED PROBLEM THAT CERTAIN POLITICAL GROUPS CAN DREAM UP TO SUPPORT THEIR AGENDAS.

Face it, it's just been a ****ty fall for surfing around here.:D

[Shadow Surfer]

So true...global warming is a very political topic. Regardless....decreased burning of fossil fuels sounds like a great idea...but our actual impact on the global environment...not so sure it's so devastatingly dire.

[Swellinfo]

1st the scientists claimed global warming would cause more storms and that they would become stronger, now they claim that global warming is reducing the storms this year. How many times have we heard claims of hyper active huricane years only to experience little or no activity. If anyone thinks for a moment that these "Experts" have a real clue as to the causes and effects of our ever changing environment you are delusional. We live on a very dynamic planet, 400 million years ago the entire surface of the planet was covered in a 1 mile thick layer of ice at other times it has been at a boil. We humans have been here for not even a blink of the eye in terms of geological time. A billion years from now, we won't even be a memory. ENOUGH ALREADY ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING BEING THE CAUSE OF EVERY PERCEIVED PROBLEM THAT CERTAIN POLITICAL GROUPS CAN DREAM UP TO SUPPORT THEIR AGENDAS.

Face it, it's just been a ****ty fall for surfing around here.:D

Well, YES, the climate of our earth changes contstantly over its multi billions years of existence, but global warming doesn't indicate natural change, but rather rapid change caused by humans that started a century ago from the start of the industrial revolution. So to ignore this human impact doesn't make sense.

[Justine]

I've never heard of the correlation between global warming and less hurricanes... Do you have a link or reference to this? Much research indicates an increase in storms due to rise in Sea surface temps.


Haha...totally agree with you, Micah!
Dude...you wouldn't even be able to "feel" the effects of "global warming"..what it's like a 1 degree increase....jeez....it's so blown out of proportion (not to say let's ignore the whole issue) but,...let's just say i'd rather there be a "global warming" than say another ice age. :)

Micah, are doing any traveling this Fall/Winter?
I'm heading out to SoCal in Nov for the USBA (IB or Rosarita), but may possibly go to HI instead for the first week of November and then make it in time for the USBA Rosarita event (Nov 9-11).

Hope to trade waves with you again in the near future!

[rustysrfr]

Well, YES, the climate of our earth changes contstantly over its multi billions years of existence, but global warming doesn't indicate natural change, but rather rapid change caused by humans that started a century ago from the start of the industrial revolution. So to ignore this human impact doesn't make sense.

but,gobal warming is a natural process of the heating of the earth's atmosphere, this is evident in the increasing co2 levels. however, we need to figure out how much of this increase is due to human impact. The IPCC attributed over 90% of the cause of the increase in co2 level to human impact

[Swellinfo]

but,gobal warming is a natural process of the heating of the earth's atmosphere, this is evident in the increasing co2 levels. however, we need to figure out how much of this increase is due to human impact. The IPCC attributed over 90% of the cause of the increase in co2 level to human impact

the therm "global warming", by definition in not a natural process. It is the process of human induced climate change, that like you said is largely driven by the increase in co2 levels we humans have put into the atmosphere. The stat you just showed where 90% of the co2 increase is human induced would justify this argument.

I can't recall exactly, but over the past say 100 thousands years, we are in an increasing temperature trend, but most data indicates this has been spiked upward significantly since the industrial revolution (more so, since the mid 1900s).

Just to let you know I received my masters degree in climatology, so I've had many experiences of looking into the research and listening to scientific lectures on the subject.

[steelwave42]

[QUOTE=Darealm;3781]Here is a link to the NOAA article describing the increased wind shear attributed to global warming.

Thanks for the link, very interesting.

As far as global warming goes... it seems to be clearly evident that the way we've been living since the railroad earth days has begun to change nature, but in observation of the short time frame this is just the start of our impact. Thats what I understand it to be. I urge everyone not to shut themselves down because of labels and politicians... they are both rather meaningless.

[rustysrfr]

I can't recall exactly, but over the past say 100 thousands years, we are in an increasing temperature trend, but most data indicates this has been spiked upward significantly since the industrial revolution (more so, since the mid 1900s).

Just to let you know I received my masters degree in climatology, so I've had many experiences of looking into the research and listening to scientific lectures on the subject.

i stand corrected. i guess the right term would be climate change, but "anthropogenic global warming" specifically refers to human induced global warming. so what is the correct term exactly? nonetheless, is was just stating that there are natural warming and cooling trends of the earth.

[Swellinfo]

absolutely, climate change is natural. Thats what makes the global warming debate difficult.

[rustysrfr]

sweet. thanks for correcting my terminology.

[Justine]

Micah,

Do you remember a few years ago when Brian S. was in Puerto and you were on the phone wih him predicting when/where the swell would be good?

Ha,ha...well, I will quote him as he said that moment: "I don't know where I would be without Micah...lost for sure!"

Stoked, keep spreading the knowledge/wisdom to us all!