African Wave Train

[kook95]

I know it's kind of soon to speculate, but 99L seems to have a good shot at becoming a Storm and to possibly give us swell next week. Most of the computer models also develop the wave behind it. Any thoughts?!

[ecoastprock]

The shear and SAL in the atlantic basin are going to tear this storm apart. The next one however might have a better chance. This is the time of the year where all the models get a little crazy with the tropical waves coming off of africa so be informed and watch each wave closely.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13231-1249941373.jpg

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

[kook95]

I heard it had a bit of dust to its north to contend with, but that shear was expected to remain around 10kts for at least the next 48 to 72 hours, that would be favorable for slow development. Although that was several hours ago.
It has lost some convection, but now seems to have a closed surface circulation. If it can refire some storms this evening and maintain them, we may have T.D. Two by tommorow afternoon, but then again even if it does, it's got ways to go before we can think about swell. It's hard not to get exited this time of year and I'm BORED!

[Mr.Lipton T. Bag]

fingers crossed and pray to the gods!!!!!

[eclipse13]

Its all a bunch of gibberish to me. I'll just wait until I see several bars and green.

[ecoastprock]

http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww75/Vascce1981/Invest99LInfraredAug0909548PM.gif

[kook95]

T.D. TWO, going by the NHC's projected path, it seems like it will go north of the Islands meaning definite swell, if it can fight the dry air and strengthen.

[Swellinfo]

T.D. TWO, going by the NHC's projected path, it seems like it will go north of the Islands meaning definite swell, if it can fight the dry air and strengthen.

Yes, stoked, we are likely to see Ana named in the next couple of days... But, it needs to pick up a lot more strength before it sends us anything significant from way over there.

[bfloyd]

My guess is it will go north and out to sea starting this weekend. I wish it would stick the same heading for a bit. It is early, but the NHC is projecting a northern turn on the 5day map. Typically in the past, that means the northeast will get a large fetch, but a no go for the south east. It will be way too far north of PR and that is out of our window. Looks like this high sitting over us is going to steer it way out. We actually could see a little bump but don't cash in on it.

[adowcett]

My guess is it will go north and out to sea starting this weekend. I wish it would stick the same heading for a bit. It is early, but the NHC is projecting a northern turn on the 5day map. Typically in the past, that means the northeast will get a large fetch, but a no go for the south east. It will be way too far north of PR and that is out of our window. Looks like this high sitting over us is going to steer it way out. We actually could see a little bump but don't cash in on it.

The closest high pressure is over Louisiana and Mississippi (http://tinyurl.com/b7bm6) , that would be close enough to affect goings in the middle of the atlantic?

Well at least weather underground has it both strengthening and with a 2/3 chance of coming right towards us.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200902.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200902_model.gif

[kook95]

Expect to see that projected path moved further to the south at 5:00pm. It will definitely be in our swell-gate unless something weird happens. The question is will it be strong enough to give us some sizeable surf. I think we could at least see a little bump from it, even if it never strengthens or disapates, the remnants riding under the Bermuda High should produce enough of a fetch to enhance the trade-swell.
Late this week-end and early next week we should have rideable surf.

[terra-firma intolerant]

Am I the only person noticing the huge tropical development on the wave height maps that begins to develop around the 15th? That's what I think will give us the REAL swell.

[kook95]

Yep, that's the wave behind it and massive by comparison. According to Wunderground all the reliable computer models are developing this into a hurricane. It's exiting Africa right now. Check out the satellite images on Wunderground.

[Swellinfo]

Here is the Swellinfo Hurricane Center Satellite:
http://www.swellinfo.com/tropical/index.html?config=&forecast=pass&pass=tropsatellites&region=NT&sattype=clir&anim=1

[kook95]

Here is the Swellinfo Hurricane Center Satellite:
http://www.swellinfo.com/tropical/index.html?config=&forecast=pass&pass=tropsatellites&region=NT&sattype=clir&anim=1

Thanks for the link.

[ivan]

F U C K you all for jinxing this storm. go to hell, because if you keep talking about it, then we're never going to get waves, and im going to be forced to masturbate all day long for lack of anything to do. so help me, if it dies down, bodies are going to drop.

[terra-firma intolerant]

F U C K you all for jinxing this storm. go to hell, because if you keep talking about it, then we're never going to get waves, and im going to be forced to masturbate all day long for lack of anything to do. so help me, if it dies down, bodies are going to drop.

Ohh... Shut Up.

EVERY TIME WE GET SWELL, IT WILL INEVITABLY DROP A LITTLE BEFORE REACHING US. IF THERE WASN'T FORECASTING AND CHEST HIGH SURF CAME AND YOU HAD NO IDEA THAT IT COULDA BEEN OVERHEAD, YOU WOULD STILL BE STOKED.

Besides, everyone of us is bored out of out little surf-starved minds.

[wbsurfer]

F U C K you all for jinxing this storm. go to hell, because if you keep talking about it, then we're never going to get waves, and im going to be forced to masturbate all day long for lack of anything to do. so help me, if it dies down, bodies are going to drop.

i keep telling them this but they dont listen. and thats the same thing i do when im not surfing and its flat. jk

[kook95]

i keep telling them this but they dont listen. and thats the same thing i do when im not surfing and its flat. jk

Don't worry guys, you'll get a break from spanking it, and when it goes flat again it will be just like being twelve years old again , a win/win situation.

[BCA]

Wild Bill is the one to watch.

[kook95]

Wild Bill is the one to watch.

It now appears that 90L (the wave behind TD TWO) may become named before TD TWO, if TD TWO can survive the next several days. If it does, the environment may become more conducive for strengthening and it could become Bill, but it will be tough. TD TWO hasn't been useless to us, even if it disapates, it has destabilized the atmosphere in its wake, making conditions ripe for 90L. Lets hope 90L stays north of the Islands, gets pulled north and out to sea and doesn't become a Caribbean storm. That would be our best shot at good swell and would effect the least amount of lives.

[terra-firma intolerant]

This just in, invest 90L has now been upgraded to a high-potential tropical threat, meaning that is has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[wbsurfer]

This just in, invest 90L has now been upgraded to a high-potential tropical threat, meaning that is has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

and what tropical depression 2 is just gonna dye or clear land for the invest?

[terra-firma intolerant]

and what tropical depression 2 is just gonna dye or clear land for the invest?

Stop living in the past

[ivan]

you all see that? TD 2 has just dissipated. this is everyone's fault but my own. everyone jinxed the storm and it died. thanks a lot for ruining my hopes of good surf down here...at least when the surf sucks i can spearfish down here.

[terra-firma intolerant]

you all see that? TD 2 has just dissipated. this is everyone's fault but my own. everyone jinxed the storm and it died. thanks a lot for ruining my hopes of good surf down here...at least when the surf sucks i can spearfish down here.

Uhhhh, what about 90L? Does anyone else even look at the period maps!?

[kook95]

Uhhhh, what about 90L? Does anyone else even look at the period maps!?

Development of 90L seems imminent, but to get good swell it needs to go north of the islands. The remains of TD TWO could regenerate, there is still a good circulation at the surface, if that stays intact, in a day or two it could be moving into more favorable conditions, but I'm more interested 90L, all the reliable models have it becoming a hurricane!

[wbsurfer]

can we just let this thread go to sleep so the surf gods arent checking it and saying "suckers you'll talking about it so now you wont get no surf".

[surfsidesurfs.com]

SSSHHH!!!
:rolleyes:

[kook95]

TD TWO is back!

[adowcett]

TD TWO is back!

And has now been named Anna?

We also now have TD 3 and another invest right behind that, we gotta be gettin somethin soon.

[terra-firma intolerant]

Ok, so this is what happened. Sweet, cute Ana started to form, but she was very intimidated by the younger, larger, big bad Bill. Aware that Bill was trying to make a move, Ana tried to hide away. As it turns out, Bill is actually a pretty nice guy, so Ana decided to come back, this time showing more of herself. Bill was like "right on!" and developed even more to impress Ana. That's what happened. Meanwhile, a very jealous Claudette, want's to steal Bill from Ana, but she is still too far away.

[kook95]

Judging by the NHC projected paths, I'm thinking late Wed/ early Thursday for our first pulse from Ana, thats if she holds together. Then the bigger stuff fills in Late Friday from what will be Hurricane Bill, and maybe a third round early the following week from the wave behind that. I know its way to early to call, but its fun to speculate and see how things turn out. I'd rather be disappointed than caught off guard, and I think the odds are in our favor.

[adowcett]

Ok, so this is what happened. Sweet, cute Ana started to form, but she was very intimidated by the younger, larger, big bad Bill. Aware that Bill was trying to make a move, Ana tried to hide away. As it turns out, Bill is actually a pretty nice guy, so Ana decided to come back, this time showing more of herself. Bill was like "right on!" and developed even more to impress Ana. That's what happened. Meanwhile, a very jealous Claudette, want's to steal Bill from Ana, but she is still too far away.

Maybe they'll all get involved in some sort of love triangle, that will then evolve into a Ménage à trois. This will of course involve them all combining into a Cat 5, which then stalls 200 miles off our coast for 10-12 years, giving us offshore winds and head high waves the whole time.

In all seriousness though, has what you're referring to as Bill, actually been named Bill yet? I'm assuming that you're just referring to TD 3 that way, correct?

[terra-firma intolerant]

[QUOTE=ledzepfreak;39848]Ok, so this is what happened. Sweet, cute Ana started to form, but she was very intimidated by the younger, larger, big bad Bill. Aware that Bill was trying to make a move, Ana tried to hide away. As it turns out, Bill is actually a pretty nice guy, so Ana decided to come back, this time showing more of herself. Bill was like "right on!" and developed even more to impress Ana. That's what happened. Meanwhile, a very jealous Claudette, want's to steal Bill from Ana, but she is still too far away.[/QUOTE

Maybe they'll all get involved in some sort of love triangle, that will then evolve into a Ménage à trois. This will of course involve them all combining into a Cat 5, which then stalls 200 miles off our coast for 10-12 years, giving us offshore winds and head high waves the whole time.

In all seriousness though, has what you're referring to as Bill, actually been named Bill yet? I'm assuming that you're just referring to TD 3 that way, correct?

Yeah, I referred TD3 as Bill, who should officially be Bill pretty soon.

[adowcett]

Yeah, I referred TD3 as Bill, who should officially be Bill pretty soon.

And this is the one which is supposed to be especially powerful, right?

[terra-firma intolerant]

And this is the one which is supposed to be especially powerful, right?

"Big, bad Bill"

[adowcett]

"Big, bad Bill"

He's now been officially named and appears to be heading right towards us.


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200903_model.gif

[terra-firma intolerant]

He's now been officially named and appears to be heading right towards us.


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200903_model.gif

Holy crap, did you see the swell height spike up at Saturday!!!:eek::D

[adowcett]

Holy crap, did you see the swell height spike up at Saturday!!!:eek::D

I know, but did you see the wind? That's a big disappointment to me, I was hopin it would veer off and just give us the swell with no wind, but I guess this forecast has it smashing into us. Oh well, at least if it does hit us we'll have that three hours of glass the morning after until the wind kills it.

[terra-firma intolerant]

I know, but did you see the wind? That's a big disappointment to me, I was hopin it would veer off and just give us the swell with no wind, but I guess this forecast has it smashing into us. Oh well, at least if it does hit us we'll have that three hours of glass the morning after until the wind kills it.

You never know, the forecast could easily change

[swell5]

180hr forcast has it off the coast(bill) so it should be sizable for sure.. i'll be heading down there from ny to my house on topsail island on sat.. some nice toasty warm water finally

[adowcett]

You never know, the forecast could easily change

Maybe to an extent, but 4 of 5 of those wunderground models has it comin right at us, unless it does an unlikely 90 degree turn to parallel our coast.....we'll see though, I don't think anything could be more unpredictable than nature.

[terra-firma intolerant]

Maybe to an extent, but 4 of 5 of those wunderground models has it comin right at us, unless it does an unlikely 90 degree turn to parallel our coast.....we'll see though, I don't think anything could be more unpredictable than nature.

whatever the case, if it does hit us maybe school will get delayed for a day or so :rolleyes:

[kook95]

I know, but did you see the wind? That's a big disappointment to me, I was hopin it would veer off and just give us the swell with no wind, but I guess this forecast has it smashing into us. Oh well, at least if it does hit us we'll have that three hours of glass the morning after until the wind kills it.

If it gets that close we've got more important things to worry about, what I hate is when that ridge forces them into Florida, the pressure gradient between the hurricane and the high to the north creates a north-easterly fetch that crosses everything up at Wrightsville Beach. I've noticed when they get pulled north, as long as they stay off-shore or at least east of us, we tend to get a north or north-west wind, even before its north of our latitude, if were feeling the effects of the systems wind field Remember Felix 95' and Noel 07'.

[swell5]

the trough coming off the coast should steer bill north as it approaches the coast

[NCsurfer]

hopefuly it flings us some swell from hell

[J-Dog]

thinkin about driving down to OIB for the swell. would you reccomend it?

[adowcett]

thinkin about driving down to OIB for the swell. would you reccomend it?

With the wind forecast as it is, OIB is probably the worst beach you could choose. There the wind will be straight onshore instead of just sideshore. In addition, any beach south of the cape fear inlet is going to be much smaller than anywhere North of it (the sediment flows out of the river, to the south and builds up along the coast making it shallow all the way out, therefore weakening the waves and making them drop in size before they get close enough to break). If this wind was foretasted to be NNE, which it very well change to, a south facing beach would deffinately be the call, the offshores could very well be worth the drop in size. As it stands now though I wouldn't recommend it.