Latest satelite images look like it's starting to break away from the front. Front is moving NE while the storm is pulling SE and it appears there already may be a bit of organization around a circulation center. This could be it. Once it starts to spin and head back west we should have a better idea of how it will affect surf and if it will hit land.
Gabrielle still taking her good ol' time. Less organized today? Sat image looked more organized to me. Not a good sign for the weekend.
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS CENTERED NEAR 29N69W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. THE LOW HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIS LOW HIGHLY ELONGATED AND STRETCHED
NE-SW ALONG A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N78W. IR IMAGES
AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE
W OF THE LOW/TROUGH. THE INTERACTION WITH THIS UPPER LOW HAS
GENERALLY MADE THIS SYSTEM LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
I think i remember you saying that the swell model can't handle hurricane or tropical winds...so should we be relying on any of the models to any extent at this point? Im trying to make the call to head to Ocean City, Md, or the OBX. If this turns out to be extratropical (a low pressure with the strongest winds further away from the center) it could turn out to be a lot like that one we got in early June, which was sick for Ocean City. Any thoughts?
Looking more like a cold front than a low pressure to me...
Although the visible loop ending at 18:45UTC is showing a swirl (possibly low-level based on the HDW-low wind feature in NOAA satellite imagery).
Bottom line on this one is that we seem to have a real problem with local winds throughout the swell event. There are a couple of spots that'll work but most won't. I'm hoping that the marine forecast changes for the better.
Looks like a lower level L shape to me, which could be a good sign for future development, but those upper level winds are still tearing it apart. If you stare at it long enough it even appears to have some slight westward movement which might get it away from that front and allow it to develop. If it does it likely wont have time to reach 'caine speeds before hitting the coast (NC maybe).
Originally Posted by Lumpy
Agreed. There will likely be a small window of oportunity before and after it passes over land, but not much. I think the oportunity for favorable wind is better after it goes back out to sea.
Originally Posted by Artie
Micah's model just updated with a different picture. Less than optimistic picture...I'm gonna drive myself nuts looking at this....
R2D2 funny on "staring at it long enough". This thread really has brought out all desparity in us wave riders. My hopeful prognosis lines up as follows:
Originally Posted by rDJ
Subtropical Storm to move WNW through Friday night all while slooooooowwwwlllyyy strengthening until Saturday morning afternoon. Then by Saturday night the wind field gradient will tighten and develop a nice 300 miles fetch of SE'sterly Beaufort 7 winds. Seas still modeled @ > 4 meters( 13'+) directed on a 140 degree path towards the OBX and 150 degrees towards Seacrets. I suspect that Sunday AM will have bumpy beginnings in the chest to head high zone with switching sideshore wind and finally offshore by late afternoon once the whatever you call it system swings by. With that wind and swell direction along the DelMarVa there are goin to be some stand up righthanded barrels.
See ya'll out there giggling and carrying on!!!
volcano vaporizer digital