This is what happens when a storm travels close to shore. The swell jacks up, then gets beat back down as the storm passes north of you, with the heavy offshore winds. Also when it is close the duration of the swell (how long it lasts) is shorter regardless of the wind.
For my location (seaside NJ) I see the following Peak Swell Heights:
MSW: Sun 8.5 ft at 13 sec
Swellinfo: Sun 17.1 ft/13 sec
Are you all going to rip on swellinfo now for overstating the prediction?
These storms are really hard to call even when a few days out. This thing is almost a week away. Predictions are probably gonna change 10 times over by the time the weekend comes.
FYI....swellinfo now has the Sunday peak swell heaight at 8.5 at 14 sec. Same peak height MSW had yesterday morning.
Not taking anything away from swellinfo, because I think its great, but MSW seems to be doing a pretty good job forecasting for my location.
Both are pretty much forecasting the same thing now. Both are forecasting an insanely quick drop in swell with some serious offshores for Sunday.
Still, 4 days out alot can and probably will change. I really hope this thing makes a sweeping right hand turn and stays at sea...
Like many state on here now and in the past, forecasting is great but often times nobody gets it right, i.e. Earl last year. Every site missed that epic Friday cleanup! Nothing beats putting your own eyes on the ocean for forecasting.
Originally Posted by pkovo
Ditto, that Friday was nothing short of epic!
Originally Posted by Chris Joyner
Also, I've personally had good luck with the storms that run up the coast real close, or brush further south and then run up and out close in.
I guess the combo of the harder south angle, the slightly lower period, and the offshores on the back side/pull out seem to keep it from closing out as bad.
Although this one is predicted a little close for comfort.
yes that friday was magical. that is what hurricane dreams are made of.