Why would you post 1-3 feet overhead and clean for moday if you have no ideal of whats gonna happen? I love this site but, You have really been off on your preditions lately. Magicseaweed predicted this swell better than you did, magicf'**kinseaweed and their all the way in England or something. All night I dreamed of all the barrels I was gonna pull into today, just to wake up to a 25mph E wind.
From now on you should just have a negative outlook on everything, when it comes to predicting these wind swells, where anything can happen. Don't put clean conditions until the wind is actually blowing west. I'm Sure theres a lot of other pissed off surfers that got up a 5am this morning just to be disappointed. thanks Swellinfo
I got up at 5 but can barely say that I'm pissed. Obviously you have no idea how many variables there are when trying to predict the wind in the delmarva area, especially during a big storm like this. The website is a guideline and you should use it as such. Also, you can use other tools such as weather.com which will give you the exact wind direction and speed up to the minute so you don't get "pissed". They have electronic wind monitors in almost every city in the US.
Now, zip up your neoprene and go have fun in some big sloppy surf. It'll surely clean up some day at some point this week, but when will it be? Keep your eye on the wind and hopefully you'll get a taste of those big barrels you were dreaming about.
Dude, it's wind, get over it. How can you predict wind, and be perfect every time? In a system like this, you can't predict the future. It doesn't matter how advanced your forecasting system can be, get over it dude. Look for a clean-up mid week. As far as size goes, it is 8 feet easy. Buoy 44009 is at 19 feet dude. You should have known better, than to get your hopes up as high as they were.
hopefully you guys might get a window this morning. But as for me i knew it was gonna be like this in NJ. My town looks like a tornado hit it. Washing machine blow out. Still tempted to charge it after work...but, realistically thinking I doubt that's gonna happpen.
Sorry you are dissapointed, but hopefully you can learn a little more about forecasting. Buoy 44009 at 19ft, 9sec. thats large.
If you had done some searching on other weather web sites last night, you would have noticed that at one point, weather.com, nws, and accuweather were all calling for westerly winds in the delmarva region for the mornnig. So Swellinfo's wind forecasts were on point with every other source. So, to be dissapointed at Swellinfo is to be dissapointed at the national weather service, weather.com, accuweather, etc. etc.
As stated in previous threads the low moved right over top of us. Early predictions had the center of the low pressure slightly to the east, which would have allowed for a period of westerly winds to wrap around the low pressure. Swellinfo uses the latest model guidance to produce forecasts twice per day. As you can see in the update this morning, the forecast is calling for onshore, poor conditions. A lot can change in between the 12 hours the forecasts are updated. At some point we may have the wind forecasts being updated 4 times per day. but that wont happen tomorrow. In any case, having a forecast update in the middle of the night will only reach so many anyway.
If you look to the south, the Eastern Shore of VA, has offshore winds, VB has offshore winds, Hatty has offshore winds. The low pressure just veared slightly from what model guidance had suggested.
Swellinfo could be like some other sites, where you write a long paragraph describing the uncertainties of the forecast and model guidance, but thats not how swellinfo works. This system allows for many more advantages than disadvantages.
FYI - We are looking at upgrading our wind forecasting system. But, this is for more improvement in the land/sea breeze effects, which is the most difficult variable to forecast.
Thanks for the post, I do understand people can get frustrated. But I hope to instill a little knowledge as well, so you can understand the forecasts you read on this site and others. Magicseaweed uses close to the same data as input as Swellinfo, but is not nearly as sophisticated at Swellinfo in breaking apart the individual swell fields and determining surf face heights from open ocean states. And magic seaweed is also very much less sophisticated in the wind forecast. Regardless, if you had checked their site last night near 6, you should have also noticed their site forecasting offshore winds (as did the others) at that time...
capetownsurfer, feel fortunate there is a FREE wavecasting site to complain about. What do you do if the internet is down or the power is out, not surf because someone didn't tell you it was good or bad. We all are responsible for our own water time & it requires actually getting to the break, checking the conditions & getting in the water.
I use Micah's info whenever I get a chance, but I also rely heavily on my NOAA weather radio to keep up to date while driving, home, etc. I have used a NOAA weather radio for over 20 years & it's still one of my most trusted forecast tools & for current conditions.
Fact of the matter is that the cold front blew out so quickly over the Carolinas that it helped stall the low pressure area. Yesterday afternoon it seemed that the low was moving steadily northward up the Chesapeake but it reached only so far north, like many Nor'Easters do, and stalled. Now it's going to sit where it is for a few more hours before it's own rotation begins to help move it easterly and out to sea south of long island.
As a result the westerly winds were held further south and the more northerly and easterly winds persisted further south.
Nothing you can do about it. Mid-Atlantic nor'easters are tough to predict when they will make their turn. This one is no different. Areas near where the storms are predicted to change course are very tough to pinpoint exact wind direction changes because a few miles makes a huge difference in temperature and wind direction with these systems.
Your wind shift is currently positioned at the NC/VA border. In 20 miles distance heading north you go from west, to north west, to north, to north east in wind direction. That shift line was predicted to be about 200 miles north.
Storm stalled, shift line remained south and will do so for probably the remainder of the morning and into mid afternoon until the low starts peeling off eastward.
Surface Wind Streams
Get a clue, kid. You are an idiot, you don't know what your talking about. If you really think swellinfo is that bad, and you hate bodyboarders that much, you could always check out surflines call and be really disappointed.....
Hey, this is Dennis with the report for Monday morning at 7:10 AM. SURF:
3-4 ft. - waist to shoulder high with occasional 5 ft. and poor+ conditions.
semi-clean and textured conditions early. looking a little drifty, some plus peaks in the shoulder to head high range.
Ya, u got it right.
system stalled a little to the south and west. Allowed for more fetch in the VB/outer banks region and the lack of offshore shift to the north.
Originally Posted by Pirate
That's not even constructive criticism just uncalled for negativity. I think you should be grateful that Micah has put tons of incredible wave resources together to run this site and it's FREE!!! And lastly, you're last comment to Chuck, why do you have to start the surfers vs. bodyboarders fight. Pointless...
Originally Posted by capetownsurfer