Next Swell for Jersey
Checked MagicSeaWeed. Their buoy forecasts calling for Friday/Sunday swells. How you think this will progress?
Those will be fun if they keep up. I know its long range forecasting and chances are it'll change A LOT but I hope it doesn't. Would be amazing if it doesn't. What are you guys feeling?
Magic seaweed is nearly worthless. They actually aren't forecasting swell even tho they claim to. There was a whole thread on this topic earlier. their forecast of 3' swell @ 16 seconds Friday is bogus.
Originally Posted by tbing
Their forecasts are wave buoys. Nothing near shore. All that is ocean swell. Watch the periods with any bump in the water. If its coming ESE like it says and holds up that period parts of NJ will be good. Best thing you can do with that site is take the data and make your own forecast from it
great example of why not to use magic seaweed!
Ok, so you are seeing on Friday - 3ft @ 16 seconds.
Now, go to Monmouth County, NJ Swellinfo surf forecast page, and look at the swell plots or click view details on the surf plots. Here is where you will see the whole spectrum of wave heights sorted out into individual swells.
You should see 4 different swells.
0.7 ft @ 8sec - ESE (red)
1 ft @ 15 sec - ESE (blue)
1.3ft @ 4 sec - ENE (pink)
1.6ft @ 6 sec - S (orange)
So, magicseaweed is giving a combined wave height of 3ft @ 16secons. But, they are not showing you whats really going on in the wave spectrum. There is an underlying 1ft ESE long period swell, and some very small short period swells mixing in.
PS - weds/thurs looks more promising.
Yeah I see what you mean. I'm still gonna keep a watch on this though :P
another good thing to keep in mind when looking at the buoy data.
There is the combined wave height, and then there is a swell height. With the longer period swells, always look at the swell height and period to kind of distinguish the underlying long period swells from the local wind swells.
anything forecasted beyond three days decreases in accuracy exponentially.
Even 3 days is pushing it...
magicseaweed, wetsand, wavewatch, surfline, ect.......they all blow a big one....seriously!
NOAA & SWELLINFO is where it's at.
The ONLY issue i see with swellinfo is the inaccuracy with the water temps. It states that the water is 58 right now for Monmouth County and really it's 51-52.
The temps have been off for awhile sometimes on point tho but off more than on. Is there any plans in the future to get real time statistics? temp/wind?
Otherwise, this is my #1 surf site. And i couldn't be happier with with any other site