# This Saturday in NJ

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• Jul 30, 2009, 12:13 PM
stoneybaloney
Looks like you jinxed it! Don't you realize the ocean has internet access and checks this forum regularly. It must have logged in and seen your thread and now the forecast has crapped out. Damn it! :mad:
• Jul 30, 2009, 12:42 PM
oipaul
If I'm 100 miles from the beach and leave at 2pm traveling east at 60mph, and make two stops of 10 minutes and 14 minutes, and a swell 2000 miles off africa is traveling south eastward at a period of 12 seconds at what point saturday will I and the SE swell arrive at the same point?
• Jul 30, 2009, 02:28 PM
beaner
Quote:

Originally Posted by oipaul
If I'm 100 miles from the beach and leave at 2pm traveling east at 60mph, and make two stops of 10 minutes and 14 minutes, and a swell 2000 miles off africa is traveling south eastward at a period of 12 seconds at what point saturday will I and the SE swell arrive at the same point?

Assuming East Coast the answer is never. The swell originated 2000 miles off of africa and is traveling southeast; away from the East Coast and towards the African Coast. I think you meant to say the swell is traveling northwest (which means it is originating from the southeast). If that's the case and the swell is originating 2000 miles directly west of the African Coast; just north of the Leeward Islands (the african coastline is probably 8,000 miles+ long and i am assuming the west african coast here, specifically Western Sahara).

Assuming you are surfing in the Delmarva area the swell's point of origin is approximately 2600 nautical miles away. Now height is important here as well as swell decay should be factored in. But you only asked for when the swell would arrive, not how big.

Let's assume a height of 15ft (buoy readings outside the storm). So we have a 15ft 12sec SE swell originating 2600 nautical miles away from Delmarva. From materials that I've read a swell travels at the speed of 1.5 knots times its period.

Given the above: 2600/(12*1.5)=144 hours or 6 days. The swell will arrive in 6 days.

:eek:
• Jul 30, 2009, 02:34 PM
wbsurfer
Quote:

Originally Posted by beaner
Assuming East Coast the answer is never. The swell originated 2000 miles off of africa and is traveling southeast; away from the East Coast and towards the African Coast. I think you meant to say the swell is traveling northwest (which means it is originating from the southeast). If that's the case and the swell is originating 2000 miles directly west of the African Coast; just north of the Leeward Islands (the african coastline is probably 8,000 miles+ long and i am assuming the west african coast here, specifically Western Sahara).

Assuming you are surfing in the Delmarva area the swell's point of origin is approximately 2600 nautical miles away. Now height is important here as well as swell decay should be factored in. But you only asked for when the swell would arrive, not how big.

Let's assume a height of 15ft (buoy readings outside the storm). So we have a 15ft 12sec SE swell originating 2600 nautical miles away from Delmarva. From materials that I've read a swell travels at the speed of 1.5 knots times its period.

Given the above: 2600/(12*1.5)=144 hours or 6 days. The swell will arrive in 6 days.

:eek:

how do you know all of that information?
• Jul 30, 2009, 02:49 PM
Lumpy
Quote:

Originally Posted by wbsurfer
how do you know all of that information?

Because he is the Beaner!!!
• Jul 30, 2009, 03:25 PM
dredg2
Because is he constantly smoking beaners...
• Jul 30, 2009, 07:13 PM
Salty J
Quote:

Originally Posted by NJexit98
I was looking at the forecast for this weekend and it says Saturday, August 1st is going to be shoulder high in the morning. What are the chances that this forecast is going to stay this way. And if it does stay this way it will probably be the best day of the season.

50% and no it wont.
• Jul 30, 2009, 10:46 PM
beaner
Quote:

Originally Posted by dredg2
Because is he constantly smoking beaners...

I have no idea what that means. Is it a marijuana reference? I know this stuff because I like to read about it.

Surf Science by Tonny Butt and Paul Russell is a good one
Wetsand Wavecast guide by Nathan Todd Cool is a good book as well

The stormrider guides usually have some info on forecasting. Surfline has some stuff. It's out there, just gotta find it. I'm not a guru like micah or lumpy though...(lump has yeeears of experience on me...haha)
• Jul 30, 2009, 10:50 PM
Jettylife521
Hope Saturday holds!!! :D
• Jul 31, 2009, 12:13 PM
stoneybaloney
Did you guys see its supposed to be bicep-high and clean on Saturday??? :D
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