Helene became a hurricane as of the NHC advisory this morning, and her path/intensity are looking very good at this point for more East Coast G swells.
As of now, Helene swells are looking to start arriving around Wednesday and build through the end of the week.
Quick check at atmospheric patterns, show high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and good winds for the end of next week for most areas. Check the GFS maps from Unisys here - Swellinfo pressure maps will be here soon http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9pane...0p_9panel.html
The models are really split right now as far as the direction Helene takes in 2-3 days. The GFS model (which is the link above) shows the more WNW path rather than the NNW path shown on the GFDL. We'll get much more swell if Helene takes more of the WNW track.
The 10day GFSx 500 mb Hght/SLP Plot continues to look sick!!!! Much different though from the NHC's 5 or 6 models shown....at least how long it lasts in our window.... It seems to be suggesting that the 1st trough misses it and the 2nd trough starts to pull it away late next week.. The more up to date 10day GFSx 500 mb Hght/SLP Plot model seems to continue this: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_174s.gif
This looks good for me as I will be in Ct. from late Friday to mid- or late- afternoon Sunday...keeping surf here until early the following week...
The models are looking in better agreement today. This next cold front that will be moving off the coast during the middle of the week is expected to shift Helene's track northward. However, if you loook at the Swellinfo wave maps (GFS), you can see that the storm becomes nearly stationary around day 5-6. So, all indications are that the north shift will occur, but the longer Helene moves towards the coast, the more swell we get... and sitting out there sationary, is plenty fine.
Small G swells will likely start coming in around Wednesday, and the meet of this swell is looking to hit around Friday and into the weekend, and possibly last into early next week! This is going to be another long period swell event (prob. longer than Frances 15-16sec+), so your going to have to choose spots wisely The SE swell direction should squeeze into the eastern CT and RI shores - sorry no swellinfo forecast for CT...
On another topic, Helene's current path is like dead aim at Delmarva, and smack dab in the middle is Bermuda... Ya, its a tiny island, but I've been curious for while, how much dissipation on these G swells occurs from Bermuda.?
Last edited by Swellinfo; Sep 18, 2006 at 03:17 PM.