Three things create surf... Strength, duration, and fetch
I'm just an amateur, and the pros know better, but I think the center of this low is too close to the coast (just like the last one) and deepening too late in its track up the eastern seaboard. So we're not really getting much of any of the Big Three. The back door cold front is the only real wind we'll see, and it's the swell-killing NW type... as Matt said.