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  1. #1
    Join Date
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    Super Long Range Forecast

    Well, well, well. The GFS and GFDL models have a tropical cyclone forming off the SC coast within the next 48 hours. As of tonights' Sattelite run and Quickscat information and the fact that pressures are falling in the this area, it appears that a cyclone may be forming as we speak. NHC has classified this disturbance as Invest 99 and is planning on having a Hurricane Hunter on standby for a possible recon tommorrow.

    Beside all the above, it appears on the Super Long Range that this system may meander just offshore for awhile creating nice SE fetch from it's interaction with a strengthening 1028 ridge sliding SE across Bermuda. Watch out OBX and Mid-Atlantic! IF the models hold true, you may start feeling some pre-runner SE swell of 9 sec@1.5 feet on Thursday. With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.

    Keep your fingers crossed. I think that Big Kahuna has made us suffer long enough...see ya out there!
    ________
    BMW K1200RS
    Last edited by SkySurfnSnow; Jan 19, 2011 at 04:48 AM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    ocean city
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    i hope and pray it holds true

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Showing potential.

    But don't get a head of yourself, the models have been varying quite dramatically with each run.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by SkySurfnSnow View Post
    With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.
    Sweet! best case waist-chest high.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    GFDL model is showing some real potential this morning.

    PS. The swellinfo model doesn't handle hurricane winds at this point, so if there is tropical development, the forecasts are undercall at this point.

  6. does this have to do with anything concerning saturday

  7. #7
    Join Date
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    yes, latest run showing potential for the weekend.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
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    looks pretty sweet...maybe good waves for the NYBB pro. micah, what makes the models differ from each other? in otherwords why do the gfs, gfdl, etc often contradict each other?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    The GFS is a global model, whereas the GFDL take a small grid of winds that are taken from hurricane hunters and such to model tropical cyclones.

    In such tropical storm cases, the GFDL forecasts generally provide a better picture and are helpful for swell predictions.

    As mentioned, the Swellinfo model can't currently handle the GFDL winds. The best thing to look at for these scenarios is the Wavewatch hurricane model.

    Go to:
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_int.html

    Select NAH US coastal zoom, and click on the point forecasts -> NAH stands for North Atlantic hurricane.

    Would like to get a Swellinfo hurricane model going, but that isn't going happen this year unfortunately.

  10. #10

    Man o man!

    Quote Originally Posted by SkySurfnSnow View Post
    Well, well, well. The GFS and GFDL models have a tropical cyclone forming off the SC coast within the next 48 hours. As of tonights' Sattelite run and Quickscat information and the fact that pressures are falling in the this area, it appears that a cyclone may be forming as we speak. NHC has classified this disturbance as Invest 99 and is planning on having a Hurricane Hunter on standby for a possible recon tommorrow.

    Beside all the above, it appears on the Super Long Range that this system may meander just offshore for awhile creating nice SE fetch from it's interaction with a strengthening 1028 ridge sliding SE across Bermuda. Watch out OBX and Mid-Atlantic! IF the models hold true, you may start feeling some pre-runner SE swell of 9 sec@1.5 feet on Thursday. With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.

    Keep your fingers crossed. I think that Big Kahuna has made us suffer long enough...see ya out there!
    What ever happened to looking at the cam or just checking the surf? wow. this tech stuff has gotton out of hand! micah you need to stop this madness! LOL