If we don't get swell from this coastal storm, our attention should be looking at the cutoff low sitting in the middle of the Atlantic about 900 miles EENE of DelmarVA.
Of course the models, and I use them loosely, have that Low getting deeper that the tropical thing and it does not appear to move anywhere anytime soon.
If things hold together, we should start seeing some small to medium size 12 second surf beginning on Tuesday and holding through the following weekend.
Thanks to lessening shear and increasingly more thunderstorms in its circulation, the low could organize into a tropical depression by late today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
Forecasts continue to insist that the low pressure will approach the Carolina Coast, and then turn north and northeast.
This will continue to heighten the threat of rip currents from the Atlantic beaches of Florida to the Delmarva. Waves through the weekend will be running around 10 feet, with up to 15 feet possible along the Outer Banks.
Depending on how well the low pressure can organize, and how close it comes to the coastal areas, will determine if showers or rain will impact some parts of the eastern Carolinas, and perhaps the southeastern Mid-Atlantic. Right now the best chance looks to be Sunday into Monday.
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown much better organized over the past six hours, thanks to an decrease in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are still creating about 15-20 knots of wind shear over 99L, but satellite loops of 99L show that a more organized circulation has formed, with heavy thunderstorm activity starting to build north of the center. The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 5pm EDT today. NHC issued this special advisory at 8:45am today:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
This is all well and good but keep in mind that this swell isn't going to be epic by any stretch of the imagination, particularly because the winds look like ****. Well, maybe it'll be good in some areas of the mid-atlantic but i have a strange feeling that MD north isn't going to see too much action.
on another note it'll be nice to have some waves...
Yesterday this looked like garbage...today there is hope.... Looks like it moving to the west though ( http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html ). Now we may be wishing for the cold front to be a little closer to the coast if this thing keeps on moving to the west... Quikscat is showing most of the fetch aimed at southern NC through Florida right now though...