Super Long Range Forecast

[Swellinfo]

Hey RdJ,

FYI. the only time there is a delay of posts is when you post links. I moderate all posts with links, or else tons of spam will be everywhere. The spam recently, has been pretty minimal, so maybe I can take off the moderation. But, that is the only time there is a delay.

Also, Swellinfo and the normal Wavewatch Atlantic model use winds projected by the GFS weather model.

Both the GFS and GFDL indicate a NW shift that will start over the next 24 hours:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...799_model.html

[South Bethany]

None of the dates and times in this image make sense to me...

[Swellinfo]

Those times/dates appear to be in error.

[rDJ]

You're probably better off monitoring for spam and keeping this site on point. Don't mind my complaining.

Both the GFDL and NOGAPS show potential for landfall between Georgia and NC and judging by the GFDL it could be a cat 2 when it hits! The GFS looks most favorable with the potential to give us surf well into next week. I'm guessing that once it hooks back west the models will be in better agreement.

[chubbyG]

You're probably better off monitoring for spam and keeping this site on point. Don't mind my complaining.

Both the GFDL and NOGAPS show potential for landfall between Georgia and NC and judging by the GFDL it could be a cat 2 when it hits! The GFS looks most favorable with the potential to give us surf well into next week. I'm guessing that once it hooks back west the models will be in better agreement.

agreed on both points... monitoring and model reconciliation... winds could be an issue, but there should be swell, regardless (and a crowd or two at the sheltered spots)...

[rDJ]

I think those winds will partially depend on how close it gets to land. I'm guessing the further away from the coast, the better the winds will be.

[Lumpy]

LBAR? Who created this model? Just curious...

It seems to be the winning model right now. Shear is beating the daylights out of Invest99 at 1:30pm Wednesday....

[rDJ]

It's taking it's good ol' time to form out there. Can't seem to shed that surface trough and develop around the circulation center. GFDL now shows it developing into a tropical storm and hitting NC on Sat night or Sun morning, then hooking back off the coast to reach cat 1 speed by Tues. Winds are still lingering in the 35 - 40 mph range, but as long as it has that frontal boundary it's still only sub-tropical. I think today could make or break this system.

We still have that other wave off Africa that is slowly developing. That could bring some fun for next weekend, but still way too early to tell.

[ritecoastsurfer3]

man 3 pages of paragraph long posts about gfs ww plabs etc, updated 10 times a day we all must be desperate! I'll be floored when the waves come but for jersey it looks like another SE swell with a NE wind i swear the nasa is screwing with the weather i think last week or the one before we had NE wind hard for 3 days and got a SE swell it was all crossed up and weird, and i was out fluking in the kayak last night with a NE wind and I was drifting north?!? one or the other! it gets really annoying when its crossed up chop/swell combo unless your at a place where NE is offshore but it's better than nothing!

[rDJ]

Sunday and Monday could be a bust due to hard NE winds depending on how it tracks. GFS, BAMM and LBAR models keep it offshore which is good for us and especially good for NC. I wouldn't want to be on OBX if this thing makes landfall. That front is still pulling it eastward and creating to much shear for the storm to center, but it's predicted to break away today. I think the further east the system is when the front breaks away, the less likely it will be to hit land. That GFS model is looking real good.