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Thread: confused

  1. confused

    everytime i check this website conditions get worse and worse i saw head to possibly overhead conditions for sunday and now knee-waist im guessing this thing isnt too accurate???? who knows

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by quietflightsurfr89 View Post
    everytime i check this website conditions get worse and worse i saw head to possibly overhead conditions for sunday and now knee-waist im guessing this thing isnt too accurate???? who knows
    Forecasts can only project what "might" happen in the near future. Weather prediction is most accurate up to only 24hrs in advance.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
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    Ventnor.
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    the report is looking worse and worse everytime i look at it.. im getting sad.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by quietflightsurfr89 View Post
    everytime i check this website conditions get worse and worse i saw head to possibly overhead conditions for sunday and now knee-waist im guessing this thing isnt too accurate???? who knows
    I am far from the expert on these matters, but I believe that the surf forecasts are based on one or more weather models. These models are designed to predict what might happen to a weather system based on past data and other very large algorithms that I won't even pretend to understand.

    What is happening in this case, is that the models are having a very hard time predicting what, if anything, is going to happen with the low off the Carolina coast. The models don't really seem to be in agreement here. The earlier reports were just based off the information at hand, and they looked really good. Now, not so much.

    There will be waves of some kind on the East Coast this weekend and maybe longer. For how long and how big? We'll just have to wait and see.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Numeric weather models are the best resources we have for medium range forecasting. Having said that, they are far from perfect, and tropical systems are such small scale systems that they are the most difficult to model and forecast.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by quietflightsurfr89 View Post
    everytime i check this website conditions get worse and worse i saw head to possibly overhead conditions for sunday and now knee-waist im guessing this thing isnt too accurate???? who knows
    Never a good idea to count on overhead conditions five days out from a tropical system that has not yet even really formed...Think about all of the variables affecting such a system:

    Will the shear that is ripping it apart actually subside?
    If that happens, will it intensify?
    If that happens, what direction will it go?
    If it heads towards the coast will it stay in our swell window or tuck behind Hatty and go ashore down there?
    Will the high pressure system that is keeping the system moving westward give us constant onshores?

    Any one of those variables can ruin the forecast for swell and in this case shear seems like one that is.

    While head+ SE swell sunday might have been the "best" forecast mid week, the most likely forecast among countless possibilities, the degree of uncertainty was huge.

  7. #7
    Not to jump the gun, but its hard to remember a September that started out like this. Either way, it'll come.

  8. #8

    flat again

    OCMD flat again...

  9. #9
    its seems like everytime we are sposed to get a swelling it start and double over head and by the time the day comes its double over toe....its like blue balls

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    It's not swellinfos fault guys, we live on the East Coast. we should be used to this by now.