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  1. #1

    Tropics with one last gasp?

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 222127
    TWOAT
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
    SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
    IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
    AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
    NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
    ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
    OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
    825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
    ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
    CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
    COUPLE OF DAYS.

    THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
    WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
    WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
    LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
    DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

    THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
    CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
    POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
    15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

    AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
    NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
    FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    FOR DEVELOPMENT.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Was at Manasquan all day today. Clouds, then Rain, then Fog, then Wind....then just as I was leaving the sun cracked out, the wind slacked, the air and water heated. Figures.

    Nothing for you surfers though really. About 3 different times where there was about 10 minutes of worthwhile waves.


    Edit: Oh, and I know the Tropics can last even into early November it just seems we're for the first time looking at one big gasp from it - probably the last chance for a big gasp of multiple systems.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    lets hope one of these areas gets organized!

  3. #3
    It looks like 96L may be our best shot:

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


    97L Looks destined for the Carribean. 96L looks like it has a shot to be a classic September storm track.

    Right in front of it are slackening shear - but just beyond that is increasing shear in the same region that Ingrid got torn apart.

    Although the system is a few days from that region so maybe we get lucky?


    Current Shear:

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/re...nds/wg8shr.GIF


    Shear Tendency: (growth/decline)

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/re...nds/wg8sht.GIF


    Looking out 72 hours is somewhat promising:

    http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hur...alWinds72.aspx

    Depends on how far north it starts to curve and how early otherwise there might be a nice little corridor for it to sneak through going north of PR. A little too far north it'll grab those 30+ forecasted. Yet the current models seem to take it just south of that and in what might be a decent area to intensify.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
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    MonCo NJ
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    Models show 96L strengthening until Tuesday, then hitting some wind shear, which will weaken it. Lets hope it can pick back up some strength after that. We need a good storm to hook north between us and Bermuda bringing waves to the whole East Coast. We deserve something decent in October since we got skunked in September.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
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    Lamest Hurricane Season Ever...................I cant remember starving for waves so bad! Almost glad Winter time is here.............Ill trade in tourist crowds, bad traffic AND ZERO WAVES for cold water with waves anyday................FAH-Q 2007 NON HURRICANE SEASON...............bring on winter time!


    Sorrry to be so pessimistic
    Last edited by Eastsurfin; Sep 24, 2007 at 10:55 PM. Reason: Cause IM AN ASSHOLE

  6. #6
    Yeah it's a shame how bad the wind shear has been for these storms!

    What is now Karen appears it will suffer wind shear fate. First being drawn northward then being ripped apart.

    It would be nice if she withstood the shear and made it north of 25 degrees as a substantial system - even though staying out to sea she'd generate some swells.

    What is of interest to us is a disorganized system near the Bahamas right now. Some models want to develop it and bring it due north right up the coast. No real intensity forecast for it however at the moment.

    Those are tricky systems though and if you guys remember some of the most notorious long island hurricanes formed right where it is and "surprised" everyone how it did so then rocketed northbound. So we will have to wait and see about that one.

    At least there is some action in the Atlantic so maybe we get some nice swells through the first two weeks of October?

    I was at Squan on Monday. Beautiful beach day but nothing to be had. Even right at the Inlet's jetty there were only a few waves reaching 3 feet at best. I had maybe 10 good body surfing rides further up the beach...over the course of six hours. Kinda pitiful.

    Be hopeful though!

    Yet these damn cold fronts lined up --- one hitting us thursday eve - might dam up the entire atlantic and deflect any storms headed our way.

  7. #7
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    Karen

    OK so Karen should be Hurricane by end of the day, or tomorrow but doesnt look like it will throw to much swell this way................I see the models are showing another storn comming off of Africa early next week (Monday actually), and by the looks of it, it should come off of Africa with strenght.................Swell, What up with that?

    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/lat...n/wna.anim.gif