Lets go Emily

[Swellinfo]

All i know is it looks like Emily is going to make the cut between Guantanamo and haiti so it won't be weakened by the land mass. OBX Dawn Patrol Sunday!!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical.../at201105.html

Yes, this will certainly help the cause, since it wont have to go over the rough terrain in the Dominican and Haiti.

[pkovo]

If MSW isnt trying to predict actual wave height, then what do they mean by "breaking wave estimate"? They are saying "6 ft. head High" for OCNJ Sunday.

I never saw the "breaking wave height feature" but it's pretty cool they have it...assuming it works. Just don't rely on their bar graph for that, or you'll be let down. I usually go to the "full Swell Breakdown" which gives you swell information on up to three different swells. I use that and their graphics which I think are pretty nice.

Admittedly, I only ever check the "Casino Pier" spot, and I've found that to be accurate. So maybe other spots aren't. No idea what was going on with the Ocean City report yesterday as they dropped it to waist shortly after you pasted, but that is odd. Casino didn't have anything like that. When a hurricane is close, sometimes I'll look at the "New Jersey Hurricane" spot as well. Guesisng it has different algorythms specific to tropical conditions.

Seems like everyone has trouble predicting the hurricane swells though. So many variables. I'm probably a minority, but I don't get too amped for hurricane swells. Usually a let down. I just find there's only a handful of spots in NJ that can handle a long period swell, and those end up being a zoo. I have a few unkown spots up my sleeve, but it's tough in the summer with guards and crowds and such.

I'll take a mid period noreaster over a hurricane swell. The exception for me is those hurricanes that really hug the coast and bring in mid period swell (10-11 sec) at a hard SSE angle. Those are great, but not so frequent.

I'll be happy if we get any clean swell over waist high out of this thing. I'm really itching to get out. I'll take mid period chest high with form over macking head plus closeouts any time....although macking head high with form would be nice too :-)

The only good thing about this stretch of no surf is, it's made my wait for a new custom I ordered more bearable.

[WeekendWarriorMdVaNc]

Emily is now deceased. Lets hope for the resurrection.

[bags of jay]

dear anyone more knowledgeable than I,

what are the chances of this thing still moving up the coast and providing some swell?

thanks,
bags

[Muleskinner]

Even if it doesn't re-intensify, can't we still get swell from a low pressure system moving up the coast?? But the water is very warm so I'm hoping it will reform. Regardless i'm still dawn patrolling OBx sunday morning...I just hope I'm not still drunk...but i probably will be!!!

[Swellinfo]

Thanks for nothing Emily:
http://www.swellinfo.com/surfnews/tr...y-fizzles.html

GFS wins this one as it correctly forecast the storm to die off.

[scotty]

dear anyone more knowledgeable than I,

what are the chances of this thing still moving up the coast and providing some swell?

thanks,
bags

Anyone who seriously predicts what this storm is going to do at this point gets a virus straight to the hard drive.

[CBLACK]

...and she's out.

[andrewk529]

Damn, looks like Emily is a complete **** tease.

[ripthegnar]

bye bye emily.