Long Range Forecast

[MATT JOHNSON]

i understand the "uncertainty" of tropical systems but shouldn't you temper your forecast to reflect that rather than take the best possible outcome?

for instance yesterday for a while the long range for monmouth county put the weekend at chest to head high over two days now it's in the waist range.

i'm just saying instead of fudging the forecast to look the most favorable wait until you have a better idea of the system or fetch so you're not blowing smoke up my rear. more favorable forecasts boost your page views which in turn helps boost ad sales/revenue. instead of trying to make a buck, be honest. that's all.

How is he not honest ??? Did he take your money and rip u off ???? Last time I check the site was free to use.

there are something that the forcast cant calculate into the forcast like bottom conditions . If alot of sand has moved around it could have made or added to a exhisting sandbar .

Maybe you should stop depending on a site and learn about what works best at the breaks you surf at. Weather changes in a moments notice

[Swellinfo]

There is no choosing between optimal forecast tracks or fudging long range forecasts to make it look better. Forecasts are based off the GFS model (global forecasting system) wind forecasts, and hurricane forecasts are at times shifted to the GFDL Hurricane model wind forecast.

[beachbreak]

don't bother,Matt,he hates longboarders.no one's stopping you from leaving.why do you care about monmouth when your profile has you bodyboarding west florida?at least go to the gulf coast forum

[ihatelongboarders]

@ matt

long range forecast have nothing to do with bathymetric anomalies, these are forecast based on fetch patterns and weather system movement.

@swellinfo (i think it's micah) if you're using GFS or the GFDL why don't you try switching it up. try LOLA or NOAA and see if that makes any difference.

Just admit that positive long range forecasts and "favorable" hurricane models help boost your page views.

[Ray F.]

.....and my ignore list keeps on growing.

[ihatelongboarders]

@ beachbreak - updated the info back to jersey

@ ray f - great input.

[beachbreak]

why update if you're leaving and going to surfline?admit you were wrong and are still here

[Swellinfo]

@ matt

long range forecast have nothing to do with bathymetric anomalies, these are forecast based on fetch patterns and weather system movement.

@swellinfo (i think it's micah) if you're using GFS or the GFDL why don't you try switching it up. try LOLA or NOAA and see if that makes any difference.

Just admit that positive long range forecasts and "favorable" hurricane models help boost your page views.

You obviously are unaware of what you are talking about with regards to the forecast models....

[ihatelongboarders]

OK, enlighten me.

[Swellinfo]

Swellinfo runs a wave model which uses wind input from weather models. Wind input will come from weather models, such as GFS, which is the top global forecast model (run by NCEP/NOAA), which basically every weather forecasting business will use for long range forecasts. That is the short of it. I hope to build out a tutorial section elaborating on many things, including understanding the fundamentals of weather and wave models.