If Emily Follows some of the predicted tracks and begins to head due East into the Sargasso Sea after coming close to the east coast. What variables need to happen for a Tropical Storm to sit out there and spin for a few days or become extratropical and create a huge fetch for a week or so?
The atmospheric pressure systems around the system will steer the storm. When a storm just sits idle, there is no strong pressure systems nearby, and the storm just sits there. Off of the coast of Africa and into the Caribbean, the general current is from east to west from, and then as you head closer to the United States the systems are guided by any high pressure ridges in the Atlantic or frontal systems moving off the coast.
I'm way too tired to do any real research on this, but this project seems to indicate that hurricanes, fueled by warm ocean temps, draw their energy from the warm water as they move. Hence, tropical systems weaken as they travel into colder regions. This logic implies that the storm draws energy from the water below it, ultimately producing a cooling phenomena that will degrade its strength. How much and how quickly? I don't know. If you read everything on this page and the references, maybe you'll find out, but I honestly don't feel like doing that right now. http://www.sciencebuddies.org/scienc...Sci_p006.shtml
It does seem logical, however, that if a system cools the water below it, the surrounding (warmer) waters will create a pressure differential that will spur continuous movement of the storm. You also have to consider momentum. Maybe if a storm is moving steadily toward cold water, the negative temperature gradient will slow it. If conditions are perfect, it will actually "stop" briefly and then (presumably) weaken and start moving again.
Bottom line: I don't have a freaking clue! Interesting question though. :P
@Swellinfo- Which track is the current long rage forecast for Monmouth county based off of? I've read somewhere that the storm is going to edge near the Carolina's then sharply move NE. Basically is the forecast assuming this track or if its stays closer to the coast of Jersey such as Earl did?
Edit: Never mind stupid question, I completely forgot i can just check the wave maps :/
Last edited by chillisurfer; Aug 3, 2011 at 05:36 AM.