Micah, how come on Swellinfo the tracking indicates that at 2am on Sunday the storm will be off the coast of southern NJ?
During this same time-frame (2am Sunday):
1) NHC has Irene hitting NC
2) GFS has the center of the storm hitting NC while the bands of the storm break north to make landfall in VA, MD, DE & NJ.
3) NOGAPS has Irene barely off the coast of OBX
How come these three models all show relatively the same thing, yet your model is wildly different (at this time)?
Right. The Normal every day mode follows the GFS model wind input. Hurricane mode switches over to the GFDL hurricane model. The GFDL model is definitely much more accurate with the wind intensity, however, not always so with the track forecast. So, using, best judgement, I will switch over to the GFDL when it seems fit.
Currently, the GFS will be underestimating wind intensity of the center of the storm. However, I don't know how much of an undercall it will create since the storm is so wide in circumference.
The GFDL is the outlier right now keeping the storm on a more westerly path. This isn't jiving with most of the other models, and so for now, we'll stick with the GFS track.
As the forecast decreases in time, the model usually diverge less.