not much of a wait now. I've gotta say though here in the chesapeake, va beach, norfolk area people are buckling down hard for this storm. I know generators have lines strictly to themselves because they are selling so fast. Fingers crossed for Ocracoke Island
is it going to shift to a hurricane model?! i want more accuracy!
Normal, every day mode, follows the GFS track, and that has been and appears to continue to be the most accurate forecast track for Irene.
Hurricane mode follows the GFDL hurricane model track, which has been the outlier for Irene, keeping her too far west. The advantage of the GFDL is the wind intensity is much more accurate with tropical storms, as the GFS will always underestimate the winds in the center of the storm. Irene is so big that the strong winds extend far away from the center of the storm, that it shouldnt make too much of a difference as far as swell production. So, to answer your question, we will not be switching over to the Hurricane Model for this storm.
I know its a bit confusing, but I am going to try to make things less confusing down the line.