GFDL has Noel reaching hurricane strength while at the far edge of our swell window, but that is likely overestimated. It is probably in our best interest for it to remain a strong tropical storm and not reach 'caine strength. The stronger the storm, the higher it will reach in the atmosphere and easier it will get pushed out to sea by the front that will pass off the east coast on Thursday. A hurricane would hook closer out towards Bermuda at the edge of our swell window. A tropical storm staying closer to the coast could bring bigger surf. Noel is disorganized after passing over PR and the Dominican Republic and will likely not begin to reorganize until later tomorrow (Tuesday). I think Wednesday morning will bring a much clearer picture of the track and strength because we will see how much strength is gained and how strong that front will be. Right now though, track and strength look decent for us. I'm getting everything done so my schedule is clear for the weekend. PFS.
The naval maps show this thing getting really strong once off the east coast. Strongest low I've ever seen in the atlantic. check it out.
36 ft seas at about 75W. That's gotta be forcasting 'caine strength. What's our swell window? About 50 - 55W? Wow, not bad. Forcast should be bumped up if that comes true.
NWS shows it never reaching 'caine strength, which I tend to agree with. Water surface temps have cooled a bit and passing over Cuba weakened it alot. It would have to strengthen while over the Bahamas and near Florida. GDFL says Cat 2 'Caine by tomorrow. I just don't see that happening this time of year. Either way it's current track forcast is really good for us.
It could get messy for Florida. A closer path to Florida bodes well for the rest of us up north though. Keep that path inside of 70W after the recurve and we're good to go TS or 'caine either way. Hopefull the chilly 60 degree air this weekend will thin the crowds. I've seen more surfers in Oct than I did the rest of the year. Uhg!