The forecast on Surfline just changed dramatically for Sunday -- was 4-5 fair/good and now it's 1-2 poor. Ugh. Other sites (including Swellinfo) are right in the middle of reasonably surfable and sloppy.
Will it be worth the trip on Sunday? Saturday looks bigger, but super windy, and I don't think I can make the trip happen tomorrow. We're talking MD here. What say ye?
P.S. Unlike some others, I think that talking about actual weather/swell conditions is interesting and one of the best reasons to have a regional surf forum. Apologies to those who disagree!
Surfline is weak on their forecasting, there has been many days that it's said poor 1-2 ft and it's been 3-4 ft and decent. I think swellinfo is much more reliable and the hour-by-hour height chart is a pretty sweet visual aid. Moral to the story - trust swellinfo.
I was having a similar dillemma and emailed surfline about it this afternoon because they were taking longer than usual to update the forecast. I quickly got this respoonse from one of the surfline forecasters.
"Still working on the forecasts for the EC at this point. I am working my way northward on the updates over the next couple of hours. It looks like we may tone down heights for Sunday due to a more northerly track of the system. Kurt Korte sent me this on the hand off of the forecasts - ' looking at the forecast for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Saturday/Sunday. That models have trended towards a more northerly track, taking the system over or very close to Cape Cod. Yesterday, the models were a bit further offshore which I thought would send some swell back to NJ/DE/MD on Sunday with good conditions. Doesn't look like as much will be leftover Sunday so you will probably want to knock those wave heights down."
I think as of a few days ago sunday was looking pretty good but now will be windier than they expected and the swell is hitting earlier i.e. saturday afternoon and dying out much more quickly.
As a side note in my humble opinion posts about upcoming conditions are okay so long as its something more than the usual "is there going to be surf this weekend"
I'm kind of on the fence on this one. This storm seems to have a fair amount of uncertainty associated with it both in terms of surf and snow. While it's been changing all week, right now swellinfo says 5-6 ft @ 5-6 seconds coming from the north...I would think any minor change in the path of this storm can change that dramatically.
Curious what make you(kielsum ) feel good about going out after reading the surfline response? Sounds negative to me.. Anyway a day ago thought we would have a great Sunday of surf but I just changed my plans now looking towards thurs ...
also, i agree that this is a good topic for discussion. It's especially interesting to hear what gets factored in to the forecasts. I think the moderator would agree too since he just created a new sub-category in the forums for this: