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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Virginia Beach / OBX
    Posts
    434

    Once again teased by a forecast

    So yesterday morning I did my normal routine "surf forecast and cam check" and low and behold there was a forecast for VB of stomach to chest high ocasional shoulder high sets with winds switiching in the afternoon on Friday out of the west less than 5 mph. So I was pumped, a Thanksgiving weekend swell tempartuers in VB forecasted in the low 60s. I was so pumped a weekday swell that I was already off for, but of course I pulled up the ol' Swell Info app on my iPhone last ngiht, and what did I see a new forecast of 0-1 foot on friday and nothing over knee high that seemed half rideable all weekend.
    Those teaser forecast are so disappointing once they change in less than 12 hours especially when it goes from Chest high to Flat.

    Oh well guess I can play golf.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    thats what we get on the east coast, where systems move west to east, and any tweaks in the modeled system track significantly throw off the near shore wind swell events.

    Looking at the wave maps will give you a bigger picture idea of what and where the systems are, and then you can understand why tweaks in the updates change the forecast scenario.

  3. #3
    I thought the forecast downgraded because I decided to stay in town for Thanksgiving. Had I gone out of town to see relatives, it would've been pumping here.

    That's my own historical data

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Virginia Beach / OBX
    Posts
    434
    Oh I totally get the changes to the forecast, I understand completely. I am not knocking the info provided here at all, i just know I get all amped on waves and being that 10 days or so ago we had fun swell and I am frothing to get more waves. I just htought we may get some Thanksgiving swell, we still might that forecast can change to the good again, i have hope!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Virginia Beach / OBX
    Posts
    434
    Quote Originally Posted by McLovin View Post
    I thought the forecast downgraded because I decided to stay in town for Thanksgiving. Had I gone out of town to see relatives, it would've been pumping here.

    That's my own historical data
    Dude if you would just carry your @$$! Lol, I did it during Hurricane season for the rest of you VB guys, I went to Seattle for two weeks in late August for work. I mised two days of fun surf before Irene came thru, I had my sacrifice for 2011, its your turn McLovin

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    Ya, I here ya... I think I've grown immuned to getting my hopes up for the long range prospects, especially with the type of systems that look so iffy... It could certainly still change for the better.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    VB via PR and HI
    Posts
    231
    Quote Originally Posted by bushwood View Post
    Oh I totally get the changes to the forecast, I understand completely. I am not knocking the info provided here at all, i just know I get all amped on waves and being that 10 days or so ago we had fun swell and I am frothing to get more waves. I just htought we may get some Thanksgiving swell, we still might that forecast can change to the good again, i have hope!
    It's dissapointing to see green filling in the chart and the next day it looks flat. swellinfo is free so I'm not going to call anyone out on their forecasting tools (which seem to be fairly accurate most of the time. However, I would'nt plan a surf trip around one > 3-4 days out.) I factor in 2 other sites when I'm really trying to nail down if it's going to be good. Don't forget NWS forecasts which should be a staple in any surfer's forecasting toolbox. We live on the most fickle coast for surf forecasting. Not like California, HA, or Puerto Rico where you can call a great day a week in advance. Going home for Christmas. So we should get a great swell about the time I'm pulling out of the driveway. Never fails.

  8. #8
    nice post. thanks for sharing.
    Energy Medicine

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Point
    Posts
    267
    Images
    24
    That's funny...it was supposed to be flat today and there are waves..so get out there and surf!!! Or bodyboard!!

    PS- It has nothing to do with whether its a pay site or its free...I has to do with the unpredictable track of East Coast storm events. Most of these sites use at least some of the same forecast models...if anything, there is a 6 or 12 hour difference in the forecasting updates...and at 144 or 180 hours out, I assume that there is something better to do then to dwell on the accuracy 7 days out. Now if the storm was tropical in nature and is coming from an easterly direction, then that's a whole different animal..

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Long Buried Island
    Posts
    786
    what happened to driving your bum to the beach and checking the surf? If you rely on the internet for surf, you will surf less!!! Ya bum!