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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    East Coaster
    Posts
    167

    Calling all Swellmasters; Guru's; Non-Guru's; Anyone!

    WOW....... a little confused as about an hour ago the forecast for Monmouth County was 8ft and clean offshore winds for Friday afternoon...... Now its saying 2 ft!!!! Are you just Fukcing with us? Explain!? I think im just more pissed off, and frustrated, but how does a swell just magically disappear from 8ft to 2ft in an hour! Or did u just decide to get my little pecker hard for a moment and then drop the wave height?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    East Coaster
    Posts
    167
    Not ragging on anyone, or calling anyone out, really appreciate this site and all it does, but come on!????????? Just looking for the reason this happened?

  3. #3
    Ya I would love to know why these forecast are so unpredictable it seems like they are always down graded. I know we are dealing with the weather and the ocean, but I've never known a surf forecast to constantly have so many unpredictable changes. Iam thankfull for this site as well but it is tough especially when the rest of the world is getting great surf. I've only lived on the pacific and now I'm stuck here and can't get a grasp on this atlantic thing.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    South Monmouth County
    Posts
    173
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    8
    Quote Originally Posted by mop View Post
    Ya I would love to know why these forecast are so unpredictable it seems like they are always down graded. I know we are dealing with the weather and the ocean, but I've never known a surf forecast to constantly have so many unpredictable changes. Iam thankfull for this site as well but it is tough especially when the rest of the world is getting great surf. I've only lived on the pacific and now I'm stuck here and can't get a grasp on this atlantic thing.
    The answer to your question is that Atlantic swell is predominately short period, generated by passing storms. In contrast, swell on the Pacific is predominately medium-long period generated by storms that are far off the coast. Because of these facts it is easier to predict swell on the Pacific coast than the Atlantic coast. On the Pacific coast the swell can be anticipated days or sometimes weeks in advance, whereas on the Atlantic coast we are lucky to be able to anticipate swell more than 3 days in advance, unless it's a hurricane (read: medium-to-long period) swell. Hopefully that helps you get a grasp on this Atlantic thing

  5. #5
    Oh just blame it on the jet stream.

  6. #6
    Ya I guess thats why ur periods rarely get over 8sec. I know man I'm just starved out need to go home for a second and get some leg pump at hazards.

  7. #7
    A mfizt73 try and use weather.com if you don't already it will break down the wind hourly, 36 hours in advance.

  8. #8
    My Prediction is that 98% of the replies will be about how you're a d.bag for questioning the inexplicable changes after calling for a big swell. Lol.
    I'd actually like to know what's up with that too.
    Also several times swell info has the day all red but the conditions actually turn out to be fair or better.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Brick Township, New Jersey, United States
    Posts
    686
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    Quote Originally Posted by MFitz73 View Post
    My Prediction is that 98% of the replies will be about how you're a d.bag for questioning the inexplicable changes after calling for a big swell. Lol.
    I'd actually like to know what's up with that too.
    Also several times swell info has the day all red but the conditions actually turn out to be fair or better.

    generally, shore winds differ from regional winds. all the red/green guys say are how the conditions at a general spot will be due to wind conditions. however, if your spot is shield from winds (jetty, turn in shore direction, etc.) it might not affect you. another thing is that due to the difference in the speed at which water and sand heat, the mornings and dusks will tend to have weaker winds compared to a bit after and before, respectively.

    dont always count on the forecasts as solid facts. instead, use them as tools to help your judgments. a great way to help yourself is to keep a journal of surf days:
    swell direction
    swell height
    swell period
    location
    wind speed
    wind direction
    tide

    once a dozen or two days are notched in, you can look at swellinfo's forecast and browse your journal to see how the conditions will appear at your spot, within those conditions posted

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by MFitz73 View Post
    Also several times swell info has the day all red but the conditions actually turn out to be fair or better.

    Quote Originally Posted by pvjumper05 View Post
    generally, shore winds differ from regional winds. all the red/green guys say are how the conditions at a general spot will be due to wind conditions. however, if your spot is shield from winds (jetty, turn in shore direction, etc.) it might not affect you. another thing is that due to the difference in the speed at which water and sand heat, the mornings and dusks will tend to have weaker winds compared to a bit after and before, respectively.
    Also, onshore at 6mph and onshore at 7mph is the difference between blue and red. Don't look at the color coding as gospel. I think I'd rather surf 7mph and onshore (red) than 35mph and offshore (green). Swell size and period plays a role there too as I'm not good enough to surf barrels like we had with Irene.
    Last edited by brek; Jan 25, 2012 at 03:41 AM. Reason: context