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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    East Coaster
    Posts
    167

    Calling all Swellmasters; Guru's; Non-Guru's; Anyone!

    WOW....... a little confused as about an hour ago the forecast for Monmouth County was 8ft and clean offshore winds for Friday afternoon...... Now its saying 2 ft!!!! Are you just Fukcing with us? Explain!? I think im just more pissed off, and frustrated, but how does a swell just magically disappear from 8ft to 2ft in an hour! Or did u just decide to get my little pecker hard for a moment and then drop the wave height?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    East Coaster
    Posts
    167
    Not ragging on anyone, or calling anyone out, really appreciate this site and all it does, but come on!????????? Just looking for the reason this happened?

  3. #3
    Ya I would love to know why these forecast are so unpredictable it seems like they are always down graded. I know we are dealing with the weather and the ocean, but I've never known a surf forecast to constantly have so many unpredictable changes. Iam thankfull for this site as well but it is tough especially when the rest of the world is getting great surf. I've only lived on the pacific and now I'm stuck here and can't get a grasp on this atlantic thing.

  4. #4
    My Prediction is that 98% of the replies will be about how you're a d.bag for questioning the inexplicable changes after calling for a big swell. Lol.
    I'd actually like to know what's up with that too.
    Also several times swell info has the day all red but the conditions actually turn out to be fair or better.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    South Monmouth County
    Posts
    173
    Images
    8
    Quote Originally Posted by mop View Post
    Ya I would love to know why these forecast are so unpredictable it seems like they are always down graded. I know we are dealing with the weather and the ocean, but I've never known a surf forecast to constantly have so many unpredictable changes. Iam thankfull for this site as well but it is tough especially when the rest of the world is getting great surf. I've only lived on the pacific and now I'm stuck here and can't get a grasp on this atlantic thing.
    The answer to your question is that Atlantic swell is predominately short period, generated by passing storms. In contrast, swell on the Pacific is predominately medium-long period generated by storms that are far off the coast. Because of these facts it is easier to predict swell on the Pacific coast than the Atlantic coast. On the Pacific coast the swell can be anticipated days or sometimes weeks in advance, whereas on the Atlantic coast we are lucky to be able to anticipate swell more than 3 days in advance, unless it's a hurricane (read: medium-to-long period) swell. Hopefully that helps you get a grasp on this Atlantic thing

  6. #6
    Oh just blame it on the jet stream.

  7. #7
    Ya I guess thats why ur periods rarely get over 8sec. I know man I'm just starved out need to go home for a second and get some leg pump at hazards.

  8. #8
    A mfizt73 try and use weather.com if you don't already it will break down the wind hourly, 36 hours in advance.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    Changes in forecast storm path greatly influence the nearshore wind swell generated along East Coast. The question has been asked a hundred times... We are reliant on weather models, which can greatly fluctuate in the long range. As mentioned, this is different along the west coast, where the swell can travel many days before approaching the coast, so 3-7 day forecasts are much more reliable as they are less dependent on long range weather forecasts.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Brick Township, New Jersey, United States
    Posts
    686
    Images
    5
    darealm hit it spot on...


    anything over 48 hours is generally just grab-bag area; its predictions. however, during that time, a storm can dissipate, strengthen, turn, rotate, etc. which will inevitably change the forecast.

    once you go past the 48 hours or so, you need to realize that what you see, will probably not happen as shown, ESPECIALLY if it is created by a storm front/system that is right off the coast (short periods). unlike hurricanes which tend to be predictable with some paths, and strengths (see: predictions), fronts and offshore storm systems are flaky and cannot be easily predicted.

    basically, this is the reason we as a community hate "hype threads." hyping up swells is stupid because you will be disappointed more often than not

    so in short, if the swell appears to be a day or two away, then it is more likely to remain similar to that. anything outside of that time-window, literally ignore it (or if you are like me and some others, go to weather.com or noaa.com and check out the system that will be producing it and follow it). that way you dont have to be disappointed when the system fails or moves too far north. this last paragraph does not apply to hurricane long-period swells where a few days out may hold true