So col state guys state that they expect an el niņo event, whereas NOAA makes a prediction for enso neutral. Which one is it going to be? Would like to see what the moderator thinks. Don't really care about the hurricanes, as they actually account for such a small number decent swells. But with an adjusted jet stream and the path of regular systems possibly being pushed off south eastern coast, with the addition on some nor easters, could actually turn one crappy year of surf into a good one.
We were in a La Nina pattern during the winter, and it has supposedly gone more neutral. The winter pattern created warm waters and this is a positive sign for an active hurricane season. As for our general spring time weather patterns, I believe El Nino creates a deeper jet stream trough and more southerly reaching/stronger wind swell events.
When it comes to predicting the upcoming ENSO status, I just read up on what the expert researchers are saying...
So where are the col state guys getting the cooler atlantic sst's? the warmer water temps are what the bouys are reading. noaa is giving it a better than 60% chance we transition into a neutral enso for the at least the next 6 months. Did I miss some data somewhere that the good Drs. Klotzbach and Gray saw?