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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
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    someone riddle me this

    I am not trying to bash but trying to understand; why do surfline and swellinfo have opposite forecasts for the cleanliness of this up coming swell?

    Surfline says for thursday: fair conditions and for friday: fair to good conditions where swellinfo basically has it as choppy except for a small window for few hours of semi clean on friday morning yet their wind/swell direction predictions are pretty much the same. I am a bit confused.

    And yes, I will drive and check it out with my own eyes, but I am just wondering why the two major forecasting sites, minus msw, having opposite forecasts?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Lewes, DE
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    Can't speak for Surfline, but for VB, the latest model runs show moderate onshore (northeast) winds on Thursday easing up on Friday.

    The forecast is for very minor high/low pressure systems hanging along the Mid Atlantic coast, so definitely some uncertainty in the winds - as usual. Friday morning is showing potential for very light winds. Have a look at the nearshore wind maps, and you will see how small these pressure systems are. For example, right now showing a strong gradient around VB, but much less wind in OBX and also to the north. Will have to stay on top of the wind situation, as there is definitely some potential.

    The forecast of the swell is less uncertain, as it will be coming from a strong Low out in the Central Waters that is churning right now. That swell is on its way, but it will be an East ground swell, which can be tricky for most areas (close outs)...

    This swell is going to be pretty solid for areas that will pick it up best. OBX should be pretty solid and also exposures in New England.
    Last edited by Swellinfo; Apr 17, 2012 at 10:54 PM.

  3. #3
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    thanks micah for the explanation

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    VB via PR and HI
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    231
    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    Can't speak for Surfline, but for VB, the latest model runs show moderate onshore (northeast) winds on Thursday easing up on Friday.

    The forecast is for very minor high/low pressure systems hanging along the Mid Atlantic coast, so definitely some uncertainty in the winds - as usual. Friday morning is showing potential for very light winds. Have a look at the nearshore wind maps, and you will see how small these pressure systems are. For example, right now showing a strong gradient around VB, but much less wind in OBX and also to the north. Will have to stay on top of the wind situation, as there is definitely some potential.

    The forecast of the swell is less uncertain, as it will be coming from a strong Low out in the Central Waters that is churning right now. That swell is on its way, but it will be an East ground swell, which can be tricky for most areas (close outs)...

    This swell is going to be pretty solid for areas that will pick it up best. OBX should be pretty solid and also exposures in New England.
    Micah, why is an east GS tricky for most areas? I know that it looses a lot of energy in the Va Beach area because of the unusually shallow bottom offshore but I'm just curious about that.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    ive been saying this all week haha surfline always hypes swell up too much. I just wanna ride something dammit. I don't even care at this point. I just want size haha. I hate VB...........................

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by havanasand View Post
    Micah, why is an east GS tricky for most areas? I know that it looses a lot of energy in the Va Beach area because of the unusually shallow bottom offshore but I'm just curious about that.
    East, long period swells tend to close out at a lot of east coast breaks. The longer the period of the swell, the more you want the swell to come in at an angle. An exception would be Long Island, which faces south, but also won't see the full brunt of the swell.
    Last edited by Swellinfo; Apr 18, 2012 at 12:25 AM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    Just a minimal tip for any of youse who have groundswell/ close - out problems. Check places you wouldn't usually give the time of day to. Those mushy, smaller places.......the ones you never look at. Especially on closed-out 'cane swells. You may be suprised.....then again, maybe you won't. You're on your own for how much wetsuit coverage you'll need though. You'll have to figure that one out yourself.

    Mr. Swellinfo, could you send us a S/SE groundswell some day soon. Hey let's just cut out any swell from the N to the E and make them all souths. I know we never have any NE's of consequence anymore anyways, but lets make them all souths. Thanks.

  8. #8
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthjettyBill View Post
    Mr. Swellinfo, could you send us a S/SE groundswell some day soon. Hey let's just cut out any swell from the N to the E and make them all souths. I know we never have any NE's of consequence anymore anyways, but lets make them all souths. Thanks.
    I"m on it!

    On a side note. While, there is no true definition for "ground swell", the longer period stuff we get generally has some East in it. Most of our steep south swells are from fast moving systems that are generally shorter period stuff... SE swell is prime for most areas on the northern half of the east coast.

  9. #9
    I'm no guru, but I've always tried to relate swell explanations with actual experiences. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the last significant East long period swell that we experienced Hurricane Danielle back in 2010? I was also expecting closeouts with buoys reporting 14-15 second periods, but it wasn't too bad.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Atlantic Ocean
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    Every swell is different. You always have to look around. So many variables involved.... Remember these are forecasts... doesn't mean it will be DUE EAST at exactly 15secs every single time...thats just an average and generalized angle (degrees +/-).

    Sandbars change, offshore shoals move around too. And if theres a beach pump going on, that certainly changes things as we know.