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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
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    Atlantic 2012 Hurricane Forecast

    http://beta.weather.com/weather/hurr...ast_2012-04-24

    Taken from article:
    “After very active tropical seasons in 2010 and 2011, we expect fewer storms to develop this hurricane season,” said Weather Services International (WSI), a part of The Weather Channel Companies, Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The combination of much cooler North Atlantic ocean temperatures and a trend towards El Nino conditions suggest a notable reduction in activity. There is still uncertainty regarding the development of El Nino, which will impact future forecast updates. If the chances of El Nino development increase, our forecast numbers will likely go down even further in future updates.”

    not sure where the "much cooler north atlantic ocean temperatures" are coming from based on our record breaking warm winter...

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by mOtion732 View Post
    not sure where the "much cooler north atlantic ocean temperatures" are coming from based on our record breaking warm winter...
    The water temperatures of regional importance are the tropics... So, even though are water temps are warmer, doesn't imply the tropical waters are anomalously warm.

  3. #3
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    that being said, why would they be talking about north atlantic water temps anyway?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by mOtion732 View Post
    that being said, why would they be talking about north atlantic water temps anyway?
    that's the part of the Atlantic above the equator where we surf- sure the storms come across Africa as tropical waves but they strengthen and form in the North Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and this is largely influenced by upper level wind shear and sea surface temperatures

  5. #5
    Im gonna guess the other way here.... lots of off shore hurricanes to roard through the atlantic this summer! lol.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    Baltimore
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    Is it me or is trying to accurately forecast the weather and predict surf conditions more of an art than an actual science? Not that I don't check Swellinfo throughout the day every day, even in Baltimore.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ZBass View Post
    Is it me or is trying to accurately forecast the weather and predict surf conditions more of an art than an actual science? Not that I don't check Swellinfo throughout the day every day, even in Baltimore.
    Hey Zbass...Now I am not a meteorologist, but I'd say it has less to do with art and more to do with understanding probabilities.

    You'll see people get pissed cause they cancelled outdoor plans based on a weather forecast saying it was going to rain that day when it turned out to be a beautiful and sunny. But if you looked further, that forecast called for a 60% chance of rain - so, if this same scenario ran 10 times, in 4 of them there wouldn't be rain.
    At the same time, there are several different models predicting the weather at any given time (GFS, Euro, NAM, etc) and it's possible they could all be saying different things. I don't know, maybe there is some art there.

    I saw an article a couple weeks ago (can't find it now, so no link) where they studied the effects of a drastically warmer than average winter. The long range patterns actually indicated that more often than not, a cooler than average summer has occurred following the warm winter.

    I am also in the baltimore area, and check the swellinfo forecasts first thing in the morning and almost as soon as they are updated at 6pm.
    Last edited by brek; Apr 25, 2012 at 06:08 PM.

  8. #8
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    Jan 2012
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    Thanks for the enlightenment....and it is ZBass to you. With a graduate degree in psychology, I know all about probabilities and statistics....you can twist data to say whatever you want. I still say there is some art and luck involved in surf and weather forecasting. Personally, I enjoy it when the forecast isn't calling for any waves and you luck out.

  9. #9
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    http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...rm-close-coast

    We might experience fewer storms, but they should be closer to the coast.