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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Brick
    Posts
    192

    What are the odds?

    That this swell forecast for Saturday will stay true? Is it gonna be another fader? I am hopeful but doubtful as of now.




    PS - this is not a complaint about the forecasting as I understand the procedures and think that this site does an excellent job.
    Last edited by Feesh; Aug 8, 2012 at 02:27 PM.

  2. #2
    I was just thinking the same thing... I bet we will see this change before the weekend... and a guess.. probably for the worse.

  3. #3
    The forecast has been flip-flopping around for two days now, probably in response to the trajectory of Florence's remnants. I think we'll get some kind of bump this weekend, but dunno if it'll be Saturday or Sunday and whether the near-shore winds will be favorable for clean conditions.
    Last edited by Mid-Life Crisis; Aug 8, 2012 at 03:32 PM.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Monmouth Beach, NJ
    Posts
    2,311
    Is this Florence's remnants, or is it just another windswell from an approaching cold front? That's what it looks more like to me... a low over the Ohio Valley slowly moving NNE over a couple days, with a trailing cold front creating some south windswell ahead of it.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    frontal system, S/SW wind swell. Models look decent right now...

    Do you guys look at the wave maps?
    The wave maps are one of the first things I look at, to spatially visualize the storm systems, wind fetch, and waves heights.

  6. #6
    idk if this is like illegal but Surfline Premium forecast is saying

    Saturday: Poor 2-3ft
    Sunday: Fair 3-4ft +

    These often change too as they are days 4 and 5, but take it for how you want. 2-3 ft on my beach usually means 3-4. 3-4ft + usually means 4-6ft.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    you should realize that the Mid Atlantic region covers New Jersey through the Outer Banks, so keep that in mind when you are posted about upcoming swells at your location, that the forecasts for up and down the coast will vary.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Central FL
    Posts
    3,152
    Quote Originally Posted by apbb View Post
    idk if this is like illegal but Surfline Premium forecast is saying

    Saturday: Poor 2-3ft
    Sunday: Fair 3-4ft +

    These often change too as they are days 4 and 5, but take it for how you want. 2-3 ft on my beach usually means 3-4. 3-4ft + usually means 4-6ft.
    The 5 day LOLA models break it down very detailed for every break on the coast for the most part. I use that when i'm trying to decide between two or three of my favorite spots. It might say 2-3ft for a region, but then you check the LOLA model for the exact break you surf, and it may be a bit smaller or larger depending on the swell.

  9. #9
    The LOLA models favors the other beaches in cape may rather than the one I'm at even though basically every surfer flocks to my beach when the waves get big because its basically right near the inlet, which i don't think LOLA takes into consideration.

  10. #10
    and btw, for you who are wondering. LOLA is predicting what looks to be a Category 3+ hurricane to slam right into Georgia around August 20th.