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Thread: Joyce

  1. #21
    so is Joyce about to vanish on us???

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    milton delaware
    Posts
    2,349
    Images
    272
    who knows...one day at a time....waist high sets every now and then and glassy fun this morning here.

    National Hurricane Center said this about Joyce on their 11:00 a.m. discussion:


    Joyce is being affected by about 20 kt of south-southeasterly shear...and it is embedded in a dry mid-level environment. These parameters are not expected to change appreciably during the next couple of days...and the prospects of regeneration and strengthening appear low at this time. The NHC official forecast holds the cyclone as a remnant low through the 5-day forecast...but it is entirely possible that the low could dissipate at any time.

    Doesnt exactly sound promising.
    Last edited by mitchell; Aug 24, 2012 at 04:46 PM.

  3. #23
    fackk.. so much for thinkin about drivin 12 hrs south

  4. #24
    why are the surf gods mad at us again?

  5. #25
    well looks like we've lost Joyce.... what a b.it.ch.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Long Buried Island
    Posts
    1,096
    Terrible forecasting SI. I think it's time to step your forecasting skills, all summer you have predicted surf 5 days out only to have it fizzle. Models, numbers, experience, knowledge, gut instinct and basic understanding of the ocean should make for better forecasting. Just using models in forecasting is lazy and misleading.

  7. #27
    sniffer, you sniffing your own butthole? The only thing "lazy" is your dumb ass relying on a good, FREE website for all your forecasts. It's like getting mad at a fortune cookie for getting it's prediction wrong. Weather changes unpredictably so wave models change. Learn how to forecast for yourself. Plus, it's been my experience, especially this past year, that the predictions have been more accurate than ever.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Treasure Coast
    Posts
    181
    Images
    38
    Maybe I should paint something.

  9. #29
    to be fair, he does have a point: knowledge and experience could be factored in. I may be wrong, but as I understand it, the graphic forecasts that we see on this site are sort of an ensemble of other models, right? models which are running algorithms that make assumptions based on past data and trends... and all of that is super complicated stuff which is why we leave it up to the computers to work the numbers for us... but as advanced as computers are, we have the more powerful computers just sitting here in our skulls. so there may be scenarios where the models are saying one thing but your intuition tells you another thing.. and you may end up being right some of the time! but in the long run the computer models are more accurate most of the time and that's why they are preferred in the industry over Barnacle Bill's predictions. so as frustrated as we all are that we may not get to have that tubular shack fest we were planning this week, SWELL INFO OWES YOU NOTHINGGGGG!!!!! whapow!

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Long Buried Island
    Posts
    1,096
    Quote Originally Posted by hanna View Post
    maybe you should ask for your money back. oh, wait...
    Is SI owner not making $$$ on this site? Don't you think he has a responsibility to make better forecasts for people helping him make cash? Plus I do not need to rely on this site for my forecasting, it's just an observation I'm making to help improve the site.