Was hoping someone could explain to me why the Leslie forecast is getting smaller. The storm is either staying stationary, or moving towards us, and its getting stronger. Surfed Wednesday night and it was chest to head with overhead sets, and the cams showed the same today (Manasquan/Belmar area).
Any insight on this would be appreciated. I know this is crazy logic, but wouldn't the surf get bigger as the storm gets stronger and closer???
I have seen some models projecting a landfall on Nova Scotia. I am wondering if the swell algorithm has been updated. The NOAA forecasts have been projecting the same swell size for the past 3 days in my area. Although, the swell has been very inconsistent. But there is some power and size with the waves/sets that do come through.
Last edited by andrewk529; Sep 7, 2012 at 12:29 AM.
even if the storm goes more easterly, it has basically not moved for the past 3-4 days, and it has strengthened over the past 24 hours. That should at least give us the same size swell for the next 2-3 days as the swell moves in towards the coast.
strange situation... respect this site a ton, and appreciate it, and undercalling is always better than overcalling, but just really curious as to the drop...
yep, slower the storm is moving forward, the harder to predict. Stationary storms are very erratic, that's why models all over the place. If the storm models have large disparity, then so will wave models. Also, stationary storms not driving swell at us in the same directional manner as one moving towards us at a good clip...