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  1. #1

    Leslie Forecast Getting Smaller

    Was hoping someone could explain to me why the Leslie forecast is getting smaller. The storm is either staying stationary, or moving towards us, and its getting stronger. Surfed Wednesday night and it was chest to head with overhead sets, and the cams showed the same today (Manasquan/Belmar area).

    Any insight on this would be appreciated. I know this is crazy logic, but wouldn't the surf get bigger as the storm gets stronger and closer???

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Long Buried Island
    Posts
    685
    It's forecasted to steer more easterly. A lot of the energy will head towards the north and east.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Wilmington,DE
    Posts
    232
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    1
    I have seen some models projecting a landfall on Nova Scotia. I am wondering if the swell algorithm has been updated. The NOAA forecasts have been projecting the same swell size for the past 3 days in my area. Although, the swell has been very inconsistent. But there is some power and size with the waves/sets that do come through.
    Last edited by andrewk529; Sep 7, 2012 at 12:29 AM.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
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    121
    Good question, and I have been trying to validate the model output myself.

    NOAA Wavewatch is predicting an increase Saturday into Monday, and the Swellinfo model is not.
    I've been looking into what the differences are caused by...

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Wilmington,DE
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    232
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    1
    Every forecast is projecting differently for this storm. Very confusing; I do not think any of the computer models are definitive.

  6. #6
    So far it's been mostly sw winds and closeouts down here in Wilmington nc. Pretty disappointing.

  7. #7
    even if the storm goes more easterly, it has basically not moved for the past 3-4 days, and it has strengthened over the past 24 hours. That should at least give us the same size swell for the next 2-3 days as the swell moves in towards the coast.

    strange situation... respect this site a ton, and appreciate it, and undercalling is always better than overcalling, but just really curious as to the drop...

  8. #8
    yep, slower the storm is moving forward, the harder to predict. Stationary storms are very erratic, that's why models all over the place. If the storm models have large disparity, then so will wave models. Also, stationary storms not driving swell at us in the same directional manner as one moving towards us at a good clip...

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chadwick
    Posts
    1,308
    man's wisdom is folly

  10. #10
    All I know is that after checking every weather and marine forcasting website that i could, Not a single site made mention of !!!! TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS !!!! AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS FROM THE N/NE/ENE!!!

    OCMD WENT TO CRAP UNTIL AFTER 12PM. sO to all those who got skunked, that sucks. being in the water by 7am was the only reason i can be somewhat not pissed off.

    but once again, NO One out there was calling for anything like what we got here.

    Local conditions are the biggest X factor in screwing us on the EAST COAST.