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  1. #11
    on the other hand, SI said he thought his own forecasts were undercalling it for this weekend (sunday in particular). But, the 2-4 SI ft forecast seemed much more accurate than the 4-7 ft that SL called for.

  2. #12
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    for south jerz it was pretty accurate since last wednesday.

  3. #13
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    If anything, it was a bit underestimated here, but again, it was very spot-dependent. Some beaches were much bigger, but at most spots, it was within the range expected.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by aka pumpmaster View Post
    prob same as yours or similar. I'm guessing the storm was slightly off track which accounted for the drop in size.
    The weird thing is, on Saturday the waves were easily 5-7ft on a day where the forecast was 2-4ft, and since Sunday was forecasted to pretty much be identical then I would think having actual evidence that the waves are approx 3-4ft larger than expected, that Sunday would have had an upgraded forecast, taking into account what is actually happening real time. But the forecast never changed, it remained the same even after recording much larger waves at the time of the forecast.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by brek View Post
    on the other hand, SI said he thought his own forecasts were undercalling it for this weekend (sunday in particular). But, the 2-4 SI ft forecast seemed much more accurate than the 4-7 ft that SL called for.
    My point to Micah was, did he ever figure out why the SI model was so conservative vs. the others that were available, because I do remember him saying he thought it may be off. Now that the event has passed, evidence should be available to sort these things out no?

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DawnPatrolSUP View Post
    My point to Micah was, did he ever figure out why the SI model was so conservative vs. the others that were available, because I do remember him saying he thought it may be off. Now that the event has passed, evidence should be available to sort these things out no?
    The Swellinfo modelling of the hurricane scenarios can be improved, and I believe I have some answers and working on testing right now.

  7. #17
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    let's hope there are many more chances to validate your testing in the coming weeks!

  8. #18
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    SI was on the low end and SL was on the high end...we wound up getting somewhere between chest to head high for the majority of the swell for VB. soon SI will be a forecasting machine with time and SL will more than likely stay the same

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by aka pumpmaster View Post
    let's hope there are many more chances to validate your testing in the coming weeks!
    Looks like it... A tropical depression should be identified soon in the Eastern Atlantic... Global models show a similar path to Leslie. Got to love September.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    Looks like it... A tropical depression should be identified soon in the Eastern Atlantic... Global models show a similar path to Leslie. Got to love September.
    My boss hates you Micah!