Underforecasted this morning; Great swell!

[rcarter]

I didn't surf my brains out this AM and I'm definitely not going again this PM. I did not get any sick, overhead, throaty barrels. And the wind was most definitely not almost perfect. THERE ARE NO WAVES IN SE NC, STAY HOME!!!!

Yeah Topsail was def not fun as hell this morn. I did not get any good chest to head high waves, no clean slashable faces or fun little barrels. Listen to Erock and stay away from NC like the plague!

[Ryan7]

It was horrible everywhere today, especially this evening, just flat out horrible I tell ya

[ThatSlyB]

Swellinfo was exacty right for Monmouth County at dawn patrol. Shoulder high with occ bigger sets. Maybe you are just really short and everything is overhead. Some many people overcall it after they surf and Darippah is one of them. All joking aside, I do think Swell info was right with shoulder high and some occ bombs.

Groundswell from the last big storm iwas overforecasted on Swell info last time for Monmouth County but I think that was more due to it being an easterly swell.

For the record I wasn't on the main peak, I was to the side. My overhead judgement came based on watching the guys on the main peak

[walkingonh2o]

yo bro Ryan- you always get the sweet pics!!! But you are right, it looks flat to me, i wouldn't paddle out... Yesterday was ng- i couldn't even get rides all the way to the beach!

[mitchell]

Fun all day yesterday...these are from the morning.

[surfrr]

I love October
Crowds are gone and barrels to catch
Please send more swell soon

[stinkbug]

I'm already in, tired, and beat. Waves at the jetty I was at in monmouth county were expected to be 4 feet shoulder high but most were 2-3 feet overhead. Great morning. As far as the other breaks on that beach were concerned, everything came in around head high.

It seems ground swell is often underforecasted on this site. Which is fine and much better than overforecasted. Just letting the mod know my observations.

forecast said 3-5'. Local Buoys were 3' at 12 seconds. Spot on.
3 feet overhead? Maybe if your Mason Ho.

[StuckontheGulf]

Reporting from Brevard county, was solid head high barreling beach break with larger sets up until noon, then the tide dropped and still was good, semi textured but more inconsistent. Great day! Drove from the Gulf solo and scored!

[Njryan]

I was at 5 different spots yesterday in Monmouth county. There were def a couple sets in the2 ft overhead range but mostly head high. It was definetly larger in southern mo. Co compared to spots further north. The spots that were real good had a ridiculous crowd on it. I've was seriously shocked at a southern mo. Co spot that's usually smaller than everywhere else was bigger than everywhere else. still don't understand how 3.3 at 10 sec with a sse angle can translate to overhead close out for lots of mo. Co spots, just when we think you have it dialed you get under gunned.

[Swellinfo]

I was at 5 different spots yesterday in Monmouth county. There were def a couple sets in the2 ft overhead range but mostly head high. It was definetly larger in southern mo. Co compared to spots further north. The spots that were real good had a ridiculous crowd on it. I've was seriously shocked at a southern mo. Co spot that's usually smaller than everywhere else was bigger than everywhere else. still don't understand how 3.3 at 10 sec with a sse angle can translate to overhead close out for lots of mo. Co spots, just when we think you have it dialed you get under gunned.

Don't just look at buoy 44065, but look at both 44065 and 44025. 44065 is in that Hudson Canyon refraction territory. When you compare the two buoys you will get an idea of how much refraction is taking place, which may indicate differences between Northern and Southern territories.

Offshore buoys were running around 4.3 ft @ 14 seconds yesterday.
Swellinfo model was hitting this pretty much right on target when we look at model output at the buoy locations. We take into account swell data that is closer to the coast then most of these buoys which are 20+ miles offshore. This difference between offshore and nearshore swells can be a tricky calculation with longer period swells on the shallow continental shelf.
Having said all that Swellinfo is definitely on the conservative side for long period swells - at least right now.