Underforecasted this morning; Great swell!

[mOtion732]

Having said all that Swellinfo is definitely on the conservative side for long period swells - at least right now.

much rather be pleasantly surprised having it bigger than forecasted vs. expecting OH surf and showing up at the beach and having it be waist high

[mOtion732]

I love October
Crowds are gone and barrels to catch
Please send more swell soon

crowds certainly not gone anywhere...

[mitchell]

I'm not sure what this website's model is preceisely trying to forecast, but a lot of the swell models predict "significant wave height" which is defined as:

"In physical oceanography, the significant wave height (SWH or Hs) is defined traditionally as the mean wave height (trough to crest) of the average of the highest third of the waves (H1/3)"

If you think about it, if a set of overhead waves comes through every few minutes, think about the vast number of waist high, chest high, and other waves coming in. If significant wave height is what's being forecast, then a forecast of shoulder high is completely consistent with overhead sets, if there are also a lot of chest high and smaller waves mixed in.

[Swellinfo]

I'm not sure what this website's model is preceisely trying to forecast, but a lot of the swell models predict "significant wave height" which is defined as:

"In physical oceanography, the significant wave height (SWH or Hs) is defined traditionally as the mean wave height (trough to crest) of the average of the highest third of the waves (H1/3)"

If you think about it, if a set of overhead waves comes through every few minutes, think about the vast number of waist high, chest high, and other waves coming in. If significant wave height is what's being forecast, then a forecast of shoulder high is completely consistent with overhead sets, if there are also a lot of chest high and smaller waves mixed in.

All swells are reported in significant wave height for each individual swell. Significant wave height is calculated as 4*sqrt(E), where E is the sum total of wave energy. For surf forecasting, you wouldnt want to take the significant wave height of the entire wave spectrum, because you may have multiple concurrent swells of different directions and frequencies (periods). This is why the significant buoy readings can be misleading when there are multiple swells in the water. So, it is important to sort out the individual swells through statistical methods.

PS. If you look at the new Swell Timeline (click on the "Swell button"), we now show the Overall significant wave height in the gray line.

[Njryan]

Don't just look at buoy 44065, but look at both 44065 and 44025. 44065 is in that Hudson Canyon refraction territory. When you compare the two buoys you will get an idea of how much refraction is taking place, which may indicate differences between Northern and Southern territories.

Offshore buoys were running around 4.3 ft @ 14 seconds yesterday.
Swellinfo model was hitting this pretty much right on target when we look at model output at the buoy locations. We take into account swell data that is closer to the coast then most of these buoys which are 20+ miles offshore. This difference between offshore and nearshore swells can be a tricky calculation with longer period swells on the shallow continental shelf.
Having said all that Swellinfo is definitely on the conservative side for long period swells - at least right now.

You're right I only looked at the one buoy,I usually look at both and compare.thanks

[bushwood]

Well I got skunked!!!! Sat at work, seeing super fun Chest to Shoulder high clean swell coing in all morning in VB. I got off work a little later than I wanted to and got to the beach at 5. Tide dead low, SE winds all over it, dumpy stomach high closeouts on the sand bar. Absolutely crap. I surfed from 5 til 630 trying to scratch out a decent wave, found nothing compared to what was going on all day while i was at work, skunked!

[CaptObvious]

Don't just look at buoy 44065, but look at both 44065 and 44025. 44065 is in that Hudson Canyon refraction territory. When you compare the two buoys you will get an idea of how much refraction is taking place, which may indicate differences between Northern and Southern territories.

Offshore buoys were running around 4.3 ft @ 14 seconds yesterday.
Swellinfo model was hitting this pretty much right on target when we look at model output at the buoy locations. We take into account swell data that is closer to the coast then most of these buoys which are 20+ miles offshore. This difference between offshore and nearshore swells can be a tricky calculation with longer period swells on the shallow continental shelf.
Having said all that Swellinfo is definitely on the conservative side for long period swells - at least right now.

Does this mean that 44025 is showing the amount of long period swell that will be hitting areas that recieveing increased swell because of the hudson valley refraction, where as 44065 reflects the loss in swell energy from the continetal shelf?

[SoDelLocal]

crowds certainly not gone anywhere...

Second that...

[Masterjasson]

Got on it early at Pendleton. Then the MP's ran us off, parking lot closed all week, it was dumpier more north of the fence. They picked a hell of a week to lock the lot, first time I've seen it closed this long. At least I got a couple....

[Swellinfo]

Does this mean that 44025 is showing the amount of long period swell that will be hitting areas that recieveing increased swell because of the hudson valley refraction, where as 44065 reflects the loss in swell energy from the continetal shelf?

Yes, its a good indication on the easterly swells. You have to remember, that buoys represent the swell at their respective location, so all beaches will be influenced differently by the variance in bathymetry.