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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Bummer

    where'd the weekend swell go for jersey???????????????????

  2. #2

    what happened

    Jesus, did I dream the previous forecasts?

  3. #3
    It is a tricky forecast and the models have not been consistent in showing the track of Sunday's L. If the L tracks south, we get a good NE fetch as the storm moves offshore. If it takes a more northerly track, we are SOL ($hit out of lefts...) If it drifts too far south, we lose the strong NE winds pointed at us. Tuesday models looked good. Wed not so good. Thur good again. today's puts the storm too far south to do us much good... Swell info model just reflects the uncertaintly in the model (s) it is based on.
    Last edited by pmoos; Mar 14, 2008 at 02:36 PM.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by pmoos View Post
    It is a tricky forecast and the models have not been consistent in showing the track of Sunday's L. If the L tracks south, we get a good NE fetch as the storm moves offshore. If it takes a more northerly track, we are SOL ($hit out of lefts...) If it drifts too far south, we lose the strong NE winds pointed at us. Tuesday models looked good. Wed not so good. Thur good again. today's puts the storm too far south to do us much good... Swell info model just reflects the uncertaintly in the model (s) it is based on.
    exactly...it was never a very promising setuyp..things could still change for the better.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by pmoos View Post
    It is a tricky forecast and the models have not been consistent in showing the track of Sunday's L. If the L tracks south, we get a good NE fetch as the storm moves offshore. If it takes a more northerly track, we are SOL ($hit out of lefts...) If it drifts too far south, we lose the strong NE winds pointed at us. Tuesday models looked good. Wed not so good. Thur good again. today's puts the storm too far south to do us much good... Swell info model just reflects the uncertaintly in the model (s) it is based on.

    thanks for figuring this stuff out for us.

  6. #6
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    hope

    pmoos is right, hey it's mostly sunny now when the weather channel said mostly cloudy so as much as i love swellinfo i hope the current forecast is wrong and there is some ne fetch thrown at us, i checked the gfs this morning and the low is coming out 90 degrees to hatteras with north wind from long island down eh

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ritecoastsurfer3 View Post
    pmoos is right, hey it's mostly sunny now when the weather channel said mostly cloudy so as much as i love swellinfo i hope the current forecast is wrong and there is some ne fetch thrown at us, i checked the gfs this morning and the low is coming out 90 degrees to hatteras with north wind from long island down eh
    hey guys... if you have been tracking east coast storms, you should by now that the models can be very fickle, and this particular system the models are having a tough time with. The Swellinfo model runs off the GFS winds, so any changes in the GFS will be reflected in the the Swellinfo wave model.

    The weekend weather forecasts will have the same problem as with the wave forecasts when dealing with systems like this.

  8. #8
    forecast dissapeared for DE too. Let's pray it sticks around for Tues.- Weds.

  9. #9
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    This is no weather phenomenon. The swell was simply jinxed by all the kooks who check this site 3 times a day and make a big deal out of a swell they see a week in advance. Nothing against Swellinfo, but everyone knows how quickly things can change within a day or two.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Right Coast View Post
    This is no weather phenomenon. The swell was simply jinxed by all the kooks who check this site 3 times a day and make a big deal out of a swell they see a week in advance. Nothing against Swellinfo, but everyone knows how quickly things can change within a day or two.

    Are you certain that it's just the kooks that jinxed it and not partially because of the 'core guys that checked the site three times a day? Do you have data to back up your hypothesis? Did you conduct a double blind study?