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  1. #1
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    Thumbs down with Hurricane season around the corner...

    http://newswatch.nationalgeographic....ricane-season/

    what are we thinking?
    do we believe the hype that sandy was a "100 year storm"?

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    I'm thinking New Jersey's had two years with back-to-back hurricanes - Irene and Sandy - and this year could make it three in a row.

    Yes... Sandy was a 100 Year Storm. It was an unprecedented confluence of events never seen before. That makes it rather significant, don't you think?

  3. #3
    I think on Wall Street, they would think of Sandy as a "new high," ....or maybe a "new low...."

  4. #4
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    i agree, LBcrew
    ocean and bay had not met in a long while, which furthered the damage.i think forecasters are going to be alot more cautious when predicting severity and landfall, expect the worst hope for the best kinda deal..
    Last edited by suzyq; Jun 4, 2013 at 01:15 PM.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by LBCrew View Post
    Yes... Sandy was a 100 Year Storm. It was an unprecedented confluence of events never seen before. That makes it rather significant, don't you think?
    A 100 year storm, means, probability of occurring is once every 100 years.
    We've seen a lot of tremendously damaging storms over the recent past... I dont think it should ever be off the radar.

  6. #6
    The storm probability is based purely on the rainfall amounts in a set 24 hour period. For Delaware Sandy maxed out at 10 total inches of rainfall .... but this was over a 4 day period. The max 24 hour rainfall was only 4 inches. This correlates to a 5-YR storm for Sussex County. Again this doesn't mean once every 5 years .... you could have 10 back to back to back 100 year storms. 5 yr storm just means that for every time it storms, there is a 20% chance of this event or greater occurring in rainfall amounts.

    That doesn't mean the new isn't going to butcher the term and call it the 100 year storm of the century. Winds and damage are completely unrelated.

  7. #7
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    It wasn't a 100 year storm, it was impressive for a Cat 1, but not a 100 year storm. Let's not forget all the devastated areas in recent memory. Just to name a few, Florida had Andrew (Cat 5) in 1992, one of if not the most devastating in history, then in 2004 there were 3 back to back to back Charley (Cat 4, strongest since Andrew), Frances (Cat 4), and Jeanne (Cat 3). and Wilma (Cat 3) in 2005, and Ike (Cat 2) in 2008. Then there was Katrina (Cat 3) in 2005, the costliest hurricane in US history, i'm still very thankful it missed my area, sadly most of the damage was in LA / MS. I even left off several that still rank up there in terms of damage, but these stuck out in my mind. It's really something we've gotten use to around here.
    Last edited by DawnPatrolSUP; Jun 4, 2013 at 03:57 PM.

  8. #8
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    Dawn Patrol SUP - you cant compare the Mid Atlantic and Northeast to Florida. Florida gets direct hits MUCH more frequently. The same storm could be a 10 -year event for Florida and a 150 year event for Maine.

    Skeglegs - for coastal storms, the 100-year flood levels are based on tide gauge levels not rainfall rates like a river flood model.

    Sandy's wind speeds were lower than a 100-year return frequency at landfall in the areas impacted.

    Sandy's rainfall amounts were lower than a 100-year level in the areas impacted.

    Sandy's coastal flood heights were ABOVE 100-year levels in certral New Jersey to New York because the storm had such a large circulation (as it was transitioning to an extratropica cyclone) it pushed a larger storm surge than a more typical smaller category 1 hurricane.

    FEMA is actually updating their 100-year floodplain maps and increasing their 100-year flood elevations for New Jersey and New York (and has already issued increased "advisory" flood elevations in these areas) because Sandy exceeded the 100-year flood levels from the previous studies which dated to the 1980s.

    Predicting 100-year flood levels is pretty difficult when we have far less than 100 years of historical tide gauge data. Once the Sandy flood level is added to the historical record, it increases the flood level prediction, which unfortunately means that in many areas that havent taken a major hit lately, the
    predicted 100-year flood levels are likely on the low side.
    Last edited by mitchell; Jun 4, 2013 at 03:43 PM.

  9. #9
    So when Bohdie surfed the 100 year storm at Bells it probably sucked, because the tide was so high the waves were not drawing off the reef correctly Mitchell?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by mitchell View Post
    Dawn Patrol SUP - you cant compare the Mid Atlantic and Northeast to Florida. Florida gets direct hits MUCH more frequently. The same storm could be a 10 -year event for Florida and a 150 year event for Maine.
    I agree with you, you can't compare them because we get it WAAAAY worse... maybe that's my point? Calling it a 100 year storm only applies to the NE, but in terms of storms in general, it's low on the list.