I bet it's really easy for the sites to get solid info for Wilmington--we have a National Weather Service division here. One thing to check if your spot is constantly mis-predicted is how close you are to an NWS office/station--I'd bet you get more variation in the wind forecast the further you are away from one.
Another thing to look out for is the number of buoys near your area that report wind data.
Emass: I don't chest-bump with little girls. Sorry.
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Jul 11, 2013, 04:44 PM #31
Jul 11, 2013, 06:57 PM #32
Jul 11, 2013, 06:58 PM #33
Jul 11, 2013, 07:02 PM #34
- Join Date
- May 2006
- Lewes, DE
Swellinfo doesn't just use raw model data. Other sources may just output GFS data, but Swellinfo tries to be more intelligent then that. Every model has biases and strengths and weaknesses, and understanding these biases is what makes a good forecaster.
Let me add - In general, wind forecasts will be more accurate as you get closer to the present time.
The biggest sources of error for the current day forecast will come with the sea breezes, which are present often in the summer time. This occurs from large temperatures between the land/ocean that create onshore/sideshroe breezes that develop and strengthen during the day. Swellinfo has made some strides with sea breezes, but its not such an easy problem. The large scale grid models are too course in resolution to handle the microscale weather physics.
FYI - On the Surf Forecast pages, under the wind map tab, you can view the wind field for both GFS and NAM models wind forecasts.
Last edited by Swellinfo; Jul 11, 2013 at 07:17 PM.
Jul 11, 2013, 07:08 PM #35Senior Member
- Join Date
- Jun 2013
- Singer Island
Confucius Say: Man who go to bed with offshores blowing, find it hard to paddle out next day.
Jul 11, 2013, 07:10 PM #36
Jul 11, 2013, 07:19 PM #37
Jul 11, 2013, 07:22 PM #38
Jul 11, 2013, 11:12 PM #39