LOGIN | REGISTER

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 12
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Singer Island
    Posts
    1,465

    Erin models relative to future predictions?

    I have noticed for the last year, that the European models have been way more accurate regarding predicting the tracks of developing storm systems. So far this year it has been the same, with the GFS being wrong, the Canadians wrong, and the European model pretty much spot on. And I have noticed the NHC is giving the GFS suite more weight than the Euro suite for some reason (funding?), during their initial predictions, only to turn the storms to the right, to the right, to the right. Yo, weather dudes....what is up wit dat? Are our computers that slow compared to the Euro trash supercomputers? Huh? HUH?

    Just a dumb ole Florida boy watching and wondering.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Singer Island
    Posts
    1,465
    "It don't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    It is well know that the Euro out performs the GFS by the folks at NCEP/NOAA.

    One advantage the Euro seems to have is the quality/quantity of input observational data that is fed into the model. This is more easily consumed by the Euro as it only runs twice per day, in contrast to the 4 times per day GFS model (less time available).

    Apparently the folks working on the GFS have identified some steps to bring it up to pace, so we'll see.
    Unfortunately, the Europeans, aren't as social with their weather data.
    I've looked into pricing of data from the Euro, and the data I was looking for was going to run around a half million dollars annually.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Posts
    87
    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    ...
    I've looked into pricing of data from the Euro, and the data I was looking for was going to run around a half million dollars annually.
    That's more overpriced than a 1.2 million dollar surfboard! No wait, no it's not.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Long Buried Island
    Posts
    765
    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    It is well know that the Euro out performs the GFS by the folks at NCEP/NOAA.

    One advantage the Euro seems to have is the quality/quantity of input observational data that is fed into the model. This is more easily consumed by the Euro as it only runs twice per day, in contrast to the 4 times per day GFS model (less time available).

    Apparently the folks working on the GFS have identified some steps to bring it up to pace, so we'll see.
    Unfortunately, the Europeans, aren't as social with their weather data.
    I've looked into pricing of data from the Euro, and the data I was looking for was going to run around a half million dollars annually.
    You mean the ad of the girl with the big tatters wearing a Tshirt that says "Ive Pooped today!" Doesnt bring in enough dough for you to afford the Euro?...cmon

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Singer Island
    Posts
    1,465
    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    It is well know that the Euro out performs the GFS by the folks at NCEP/NOAA.

    One advantage the Euro seems to have is the quality/quantity of input observational data that is fed into the model. This is more easily consumed by the Euro as it only runs twice per day, in contrast to the 4 times per day GFS model (less time available).

    Apparently the folks working on the GFS have identified some steps to bring it up to pace, so we'll see.
    Unfortunately, the Europeans, aren't as social with their weather data.
    I've looked into pricing of data from the Euro, and the data I was looking for was going to run around a half million dollars annually.
    Thank you for your reply. It just seems that the National Hurricane Center gives too much weight to the GFS models. Are they getting funding from these wonks? Do they all own stock in Home Depot or Lowes? Just wondering. I wish I got paid for being wrong at least one third of the time.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Wilmington
    Posts
    2,340
    Wait... Erin's a model too?

  8. #8
    Can you reply with a link to the Euro models? I love storm tracking but sounds like I'm using inferior resources.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    304
    GFS is run by NWS, seems natural they'd give their own model more weight

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
    Images
    121
    The NHC definitely uses the Euro model.
    If you read their discussions they talk a lot about the different models.