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  1. #1

    Sunday forecast for OCNJ

    Mr Info

    Curious as to what in the model has been making the sunday forecast jump around so much this week. I generally take anything more than a few days out with a grain of salt on size and certainly the winds are very dependent on the local forecast but it seems like every other time i check it swings from 1-2 to 3. Under most circumstances that is rounding error but with august local windswell doldrums, that is actually a pretty big difference.

    thanks and keep up the good work. You have been pretty accurate this summer.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    Mr Info

    Curious as to what in the model has been making the sunday forecast jump around so much this week. I generally take anything more than a few days out with a grain of salt on size and certainly the winds are very dependent on the local forecast but it seems like every other time i check it swings from 1-2 to 3. Under most circumstances that is rounding error but with august local windswell doldrums, that is actually a pretty big difference.

    thanks and keep up the good work. You have been pretty accurate this summer.
    Okay, just for the fun of it... I'll be the first to supply the generic Dbag response to this sort of thing...

    hey, this is a free service. stop your b*tching.

    leave the computer once in a while and check yourself if you really call yourself a surfer.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
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    Wombat call for a good time call.... 8765309

    Nah, I kid. Hey my memory is slipping, are you the rock climbing dude? Anyways, call (609) 399-8399 after 8:00 pm Mon-Sat and after 6:00pm on Sundays. They got that Ocean City scene dialed-in. And never worry aboot the surf more than in the immediate 24 hours.

  4. #4
    Fitz - i would expect nothing but dbag from you.

    This was not a complaint at all. It was an honest attempt to understand the SI model since I find the whole wave modeling concept very interesting and very much appreciate SI

    I use other sources as well, including NOAA, the various local shops, the weather and my eyes.

    i am the rock dude and if i am making the call between heading the the crag or the beach, i try to have a view more than a day out given the distance between them.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
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    If you surf OC a lot you know how varied it is from jetty to jetty. It could be flat where you are and waist high a block away.

  6. #6
    yep - and that wasnt my question either. My question was 100% about the drivers of the model that lead to this particular variation in forecast. I dont even really care if it is right or wrong, applies at north street or 58th, pre or post Sandy and replenishment. It is not a criticism. It is just an F'in question for Mr SwellInfo!!

    Holy sh!t in the lineup. What the F is wrong with you people! Go to the haters thread or debate 7 fin 6' mini-mals vs 13' wooden rowboats on 23' waves please!

  7. #7
    Like OP said a the end, I think reports have been very accurate.

    Like anything with weather, things change real quick. Unless there's a big storm, it's hard to be real accurate far out.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    Fitz - i would expect nothing but dbag from you.

    This was not a complaint at all. It was an honest attempt to understand the SI model since I find the whole wave modeling concept very interesting and very much appreciate SI

    I use other sources as well, including NOAA, the various local shops, the weather and my eyes.

    i am the rock dude and if i am making the call between heading the the crag or the beach, i try to have a view more than a day out given the distance between them.
    Who was hating on you? I didn't see any hate. Sorry nobody specifically answered your question. Dude, come on man, you should know the answer to your question. Because NOBODY can accurately predict the friggin east coast five days in advance. They make predictions and then change according to new development or lack of developments.

    Dude, the east coast is all aboot being prepared to drop everything when the stars allign. This ain't calling up for a tee time on the weekend.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Look at the wave maps, you can see a nice pretty picture of the wave field, which should help you visualize where the predicted swell is coming from.

    You can also use the Pressure/Wind maps to see the high/low pressure systems.

    So, on Saturday a front pushes off the coast, and high pressure moves in behind. This sets up a NE pressure gradient along the Northeast... NE wind swell is the call.

  10. #10
    Thanks Swell. So in this case the dominant factor is the forecast for the movement is the timing of that front and the nature of the gradient it creates? If the weather model that you pull from has less stability on a forecast, this flows through as the fluctuating swell size?

    in the absence of real weather makers like tropical or winter storms, is it this creation of gradients offshore between the high and low pressure systems that drive the east coast swell size/direction?

    thanks again