Dr. Jeff should see the knuckle-gnawing that passes for discussion in this place...anyway, we appear to be turning a corner:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.htmlAn active weather pattern coming to the Tropical Atlantic
It's been an unusually quiet August for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and if we finish the month without a hurricane, it will mark the first year since 2002 without an August hurricane. However, the quiet weather pattern we've been blessed with is about to come to an end, as conditions favorable for hurricane formation move into place for the last few days of August and the first week of September. The big guns of the African Monsoon are firing off a salvo of African tropical waves over the next two weeks that will find the most favorable conditions for development that we've seen this year. While there is currently a new outbreak of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Eastern Atlantic, the latest European model forecast calls for a reduction in dry air and dust over the Tropical Atlantic during the 7 - 14 day period, accompanied by low wind shear. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, has begun a new active phase. The most active part of the MJO has not yet crossed into the Atlantic, but is expected to do so during the period 7 - 14 days from now. The MJO will bring rising air that will aid strong thunderstorm updrafts and thus tropical storms--and their subsequent intensification into hurricanes. According to Dr. Michael Ventrice, an MJO expert at WSI, Inc., the latest run of the GFS model predicts that this MJO event will be the 3rd strongest in the Western Hemisphere since 1989. During the last four comparable strong MJO events, 68% of all the tropical depressions that formed during these events (21 out of 31 storms) intensified into hurricanes. The MJO will likely continue to support Atlantic hurricane activity through September 15. The MJO is then expected to progress into the Western Pacific for the last half of September, which would likely bring sinking air over the Atlantic and a quieter portion of hurricane season.
Results 21 to 27 of 27
Thread: Dont give up just yet!!!
Aug 26, 2013, 05:51 PM #21
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Promontorium Tremendum
The sandbars are setting up for something really nice!
Aug 26, 2013, 06:52 PM #23
Friends - its always 2 and 1/2 foot and glassy at Kelly Slades Surf Park.
Stop kidding yourselves! There will never be another swell for the east coast. Never again. Do what I did and sell all your surf stuff and just think of 'surfing' as logging into SI info and berating your fellow non-surfers for lack of surf or spelling Etiquette 'Edicate'. After a few SI Forum posts today I already feel the burn in my back and arms and even got a charliehorse in my lower thigh sitting at my chair at work.
Aug 26, 2013, 06:54 PM #24
You guys are gonna jinx it.
Aug 26, 2013, 10:11 PM #25Senior Member
- Join Date
- Aug 2011
Aug 27, 2013, 12:57 AM #26Senior Member
- Join Date
- Jun 2013
- Singer Island
I can smell it. Wait for another week and it will be on like donkey kong. Just got solid chest high plus semi-closeouts in semi- crowded bumpy conditions, and I am totally stoked. Dare I say dawn patrol. Tings are waking up in the dirty souff!
Just gots me some of them chest high waves yesterday, really fun, its good to get warmed up and stretched out. Should have a few days of it.