Why is there always an overhead swell predicted on last day of forecast on SI? After 2 days, it turns to chest high, in 3 to a waist high or flat. Today's forecast was well overhead when first on the charts, and now there is another?
I think its just a ploy to get us coming back time and time again to look.
We aren't that clever...
Based off of the weather models and there are certain biases in the model.
People seem to only remember the times when it over-predicts in the long range, where as the opposite occurs as well, and sometimes its pretty darn consistent the entire 7 days.
If there is a situation 7 days out where Mr. Swellinfo Guy is unsure of the call, him and the staff go to their back-up plan........
Mr. Swellinfo Guy's dog.
Being a good dog, the dog is usually a little overly-optimistic. Hence, the reports tend to be on the bigger side when dealing with the long-term. Dogs can smell cancer so with some training and guidance they'll be predicting waves soon enough.
I always look at the weather and I can usually tell why it might be overforcasted. If the weather forcast changes during the week then swell usually follows. Although I have to say, they are pretty accurate down here.