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Thread: End of forecast

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  1. #1

    End of forecast

    Why is there always an overhead swell predicted on last day of forecast on SI? After 2 days, it turns to chest high, in 3 to a waist high or flat. Today's forecast was well overhead when first on the charts, and now there is another?

    I think its just a ploy to get us coming back time and time again to look.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    In a state of flux
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    3,184
    here we go again.....

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Long Buried Island
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    Its not hard to figure out...look to the top and right part of your screen. Were in the money, were in the money.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    We aren't that clever...
    Based off of the weather models and there are certain biases in the model.
    People seem to only remember the times when it over-predicts in the long range, where as the opposite occurs as well, and sometimes its pretty darn consistent the entire 7 days.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    We aren't that clever...
    Based off of the weather models and there are certain biases in the model.
    People seem to only remember the times when it over-predicts in the long range, where as the opposite occurs as well, and sometimes its pretty darn consistent the entire 7 days.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjvQFtlNQ-M

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
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    Not Nicaragua
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    117
    maybe you should try forecasting on your own

  7. #7
    Why are they called crab cakes, when there's no frosting nor candles?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
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    Hammonton, NJ
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    What happens is........

    If there is a situation 7 days out where Mr. Swellinfo Guy is unsure of the call, him and the staff go to their back-up plan........

    Mr. Swellinfo Guy's dog.

    Being a good dog, the dog is usually a little overly-optimistic. Hence, the reports tend to be on the bigger side when dealing with the long-term. Dogs can smell cancer so with some training and guidance they'll be predicting waves soon enough.

    Oh what, now you're going to hate on the dog?

  9. #9
    it's just about keeping a good balance of opposites. Surfline is run by (much more accurate) pessimist cats.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
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    Texas
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    I always look at the weather and I can usually tell why it might be overforcasted. If the weather forcast changes during the week then swell usually follows. Although I have to say, they are pretty accurate down here.