You people are over-analyzing and making bigger deals aboot stuff.
When surfing in the winter, in the NE, 20 degree air temps and sturdy off shores are not uncommon. It's the friggin way it's supposed to be.
Y'all analyze the swell direction, the drift, the air temps, the water temps, the wind speed.........where to change into your suit......where to change out of your suit..............
This is absurd. If you are a surfer......then surf. Stop looking for reasons to give it a pass. The waves are either worth it or they ain't.
If it's too big/hairy for you, that's fine. Just admit it. Yeah, it sucks eating your pride, but don't blame the friggin OFFSHORE wind speed. Just say, " Too big for me.....too chunky for me." Learn to accept yourself and limitations. If winter ain't your bag, then hang it up until May
You can be cold and stay out. It's when you start becoming disoriented and confused that you have a problem.