I almost always compare all 3 forecasts for every swell. The swell forecasts are usually - but not always - pretty similar, but MSW absolutely blows at translating that swell to wave height at local breaks. An example would be a 7ft @ 6s SSW swell translating to a forecasted wave height of 5-6 feet in DE.
I suspect SI and SL largely generate their forecasts with data provided by NOAA, while MSW might be pulling it from ECMWF. You'd think that would make it more accurate, but again, I think it's just the total lack of local knowledge that makes their forecasts here fall apart. I also think SL, being based on the west coast, doesn't do very well forecasting the shorter period wind swell we get here.
tl;dr swellinfo is the best.
Results 11 to 20 of 41
Thread: Which is the best forecast site?
Jan 25, 2014, 12:06 AM #12
- Join Date
- Oct 2011
- Ocean County NJ
Jan 25, 2014, 01:15 AM #13
Jan 25, 2014, 01:29 AM #14Junior Member
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
NEsurf.com is ok if your north off Cape Cod
Jan 25, 2014, 01:41 AM #15
Jan 25, 2014, 03:13 AM #16
- Join Date
- Aug 2010
- BELMAR, NJ
I just check it at my local break- Belmar,NJ
Jan 29, 2014, 04:34 PM #17
24th - Hadn't surfed in a week. Head high, windy and messy so went to the kiddie break where it's wind protected and was waist to chest.
25th - Wind coming down but couple feet overhead and messy. Back to kiddie break.
26th - Back to my usual spot. Head high and crowded (Sunday. 20-25 people.). Semi bumpy but oh so nice! Rights not lining up but some quick fast lefts. I'm goofy so it's all good.
27th - Maybe a foot overhead and only six guys out. Super fun.
28th - A little smaller with set waves around head high, a little longer between sets, but lining up beautifully and consistently. Three different peaks lining up into one long awesome right with a four to five minute paddle back.
29th - (Today) Much smaller - maybe chest high? Windy. Tired. Drove by before daybreak, thought about paddling out, watched some guys get some, went home.
As for the forecast? I think SL may have been the most accurate, consistently calling for 4-6 ft (shoulder high to 1ft overhead), but SI was close enough and free! No one got the wind right this week. The wind forecasts are correct for the afternoon, but they were always wrong in the morning.
Sorry about the long, pseudo journal entry, but man it's been a fun week and I figure with all the Belmar hashtags, I should talk up my warm, clear, water.
Jan 29, 2014, 04:45 PM #18
Jan 29, 2014, 05:20 PM #19
Jan 29, 2014, 06:45 PM #20
swellinfo and surfline look pretty close but msw is definitely off. I dont even look at msw anymore