The bulk of the storm will be blocked by Hatteras for points north until it starts the eastward track. Tropical systems are much much more compact than a typical low, so you need the storm moving towards you to direct more of the fetch and swell, unfortunately as this one moves into our swell window it will quickly head east with little to no fetch pointed back at us. So we only get that initial pulse as it moves north of hatteras before it quickly retreats to sea.
I'm going out on a limb here......like a crazed monkey hopped-up on fermented berries.
If this thing comes to fruition......
And if it does come up the coast in the pattern as it is predicted right now(as of 5:00 pm Tuesday)
I'm going to say there will be more than a four hour swell.......
Hell, I'm going balls-to-the-wall, and I'm going to prognosticate a swell lasting over 12 hours in the greater New Jersey region.
According to latest projected path, the thing should be in the greater New Jersey region's swell window from late Friday clear through Sunday. A category 1 Hurricane, moving past the greater New Jersey region, headed Northeastward bound will give me waves. Maybe not youse guys, but it will give me waves.
Saturday or Sunday might produce the greatest close-outs the greater New Jersey region has ever seen.
You know, I feel mean tonight. I'm might even chuckle if dry air totally snaps the life out of this sucker......as I imagine 50-year-old men all sad at their computers. Yeah, totally sadistic.
I'll feel for you kids though, as y'all are supposed to be stoked aboot this stuff.........like crazed monkeys hopped-up on fermented berries hanging from limbs....
Ah, man, the way I tied the beginning to the end, with the monkey, was just fantastic. Bravo !! Bravo !!!
He was talking about the 4 hours peak in Buxton, NC. Looks like that is still the case, as is everywhere in the SE. Our window for 6-8 foot surf is going to be for about 2-4 hours on Thursday. Not that the entire swell is only lasting 4 hours, but everybody, across the board at this point is going to have a quick chain of events that leads to the swell's peak, clean-up and then very rapid demise.
The swell down here is scheduled to go from 6-8 to 2-3 in the blink of an eye. Same is going to happen to Delmarva and Jersey. Like Skegs said, this thing is fixing to bounce of southern OBX and then its going to be a quick hit... You guys will probably get much better conditions north of VB, albeit it short lived.
Still not buying how close to shore this thing is supposed to get down here. I see it taking a more vertical path up north and scraping across OBX. Im seeing various paths from various sources, but they usually dont sit right off shore down here like that. The gaskin banks will direct it up north, as it always does.