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  1. #1

    Mom co. Forecast questions - Micah

    First of, let me start by saying this is my favorite surf forecasting site. I would be scrambling without it, so keep it up!

    That said, I think I have been seeing annodd trend. Lately, there will be a day several days out forecast to have waves. It will look good, and be green until we get abot 36 hours out, then it seems like the graphics get extra critical, and it will shift to red and or blue, when conditions dont warrant it. Also, te main graph and the day by day graphics dont always jive.

    An example is the forecast for mom co tomorrow. In my opinion with the current wind wave predictions it should be blue and green, no red. Day by day has red and green, main graphic has blue and green and a touch red.

    If i was to casually glance at just the graphic, and not the details I might dismiss it. I know the forecast updates several times a day, so it might change, but ive observed this on seveal swells.

    The details of yor forecast(swell height period direction etc) are really solid. To me they show chest high hard angled south swell with semi stiff offshores. Touch of side offshore, and likely some morning sickness, but i would think blue erly then all green.

    Perhaps im nitpicking, because this reLly is the best site for forecasting our area, to the point its made me lazy and dependent.

  2. #2
    that's called keeping the web traffic up. its said to be liked by the advertisers.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by MFitz73 View Post
    that's called keeping the web traffic up. its said to be liked by the advertisers.

    agreed, you will see a day at the end the forecast, esp in winter that is head high and offshore, once a few days out it will drop in size, then a day out almost non existent... got to keep people coming back. i asked this question before and got the answer "models change" but SI only had the swell on the charts/

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chadwick
    Posts
    1,318
    this time of year especially,go check the waves,and if it looks decent go

  5. #5
    You guys certainky could be right, but I would like to think thats not the case. I was thinking the programming for the graphics is just a little too critical inside a certain time window.

    Ironically, its now updated to blue and green, pretty much in the ratio I would think....and I plan on surfing it timorrow regardless of what color it flips around to. :-)

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by beachbreak View Post
    this time of year especially,go check the waves,and if it looks decent go
    Not everyone has that luxury. With 3 kids, 50+ hour a week job, 80 mile commute to the beach, I must utilize weather predictions. Gone are the days where I could tell how heavy the surf was from the sound through my window.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    avon
    Posts
    129
    Keep in mind it is called a surf "forecast" and not a surf "report". I think SI does a pretty decent job.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by all4blues View Post
    Keep in mind it is called a surf "forecast" and not a surf "report". I think SI does a pretty decent job.
    I am well aware of this. So do I...in fact as I noted in my post, I think they do a better than a "decent job" actually, but this is simply a trend I noticed recently.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    avon
    Posts
    129
    Also, Ive probably had fun on more days with blue and red predictions than with green. Just sayin though, NOTHING substitutes standing on the sand and looking for yourself cause you just never know when the tide is just right for 45 mins and it ends up being fun on a day you thought was shot.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    ethernet
    Posts
    2,218
    the color function is a gimmick for kooks who cant read numbers, its not part of a 'real forecast' but an overlay generated from wind data and the angle the wind is blowing compared to the coast. The closer the angle is to 90, the better and it is green. There is likely an angle/number set that corresponds to a color. however this ignores the fetch. If the wind is a 10knt onshore and locally generated with short fetch it may not hurt wave shape, however 10 knts onshore with a longer fetch could hurt wave shape.

    So remember this, same wind speed and direction can lead to different sea states, surf reports cant really predict this as of yet from my experience. I could be wrong


    Also, fronts move off the coast at different points and shift course and this changes up to the last moment when the front goes out to sea. this path is what makes the waves.

    IE: If a front goes off the carolinas, jerz gets e or ene swell and w or nw offshores (better in southern end of state or LBI)
    if it goes off Rhodey, jerz gets south swell with a ssw or sw wind cleanup (better in moco)

    so yes models change, especially on trailing edge coasts that fronts leave from (as opposed to an arriving front as on the west coast)

    the further out the swell is, the 'hotter' and 'bigger' it appears, this is always the case with every site I go to look. Surfline and surfnewsnetwork even have a disclaimer about how the forecasts that are a out a few days will normalize and become smaller


    my point is if you had a clue about what really makes waves and weather you would see this color thing IS NOT important.

    if you live far from the beach, i guess it sucks, but whining that its not accurate and the cams are down is such a 2014 white person gripe, get a grip. Learn to read a weather map and surf more so you can see the results of weather, or make a friend who lives close to the beach to get a real report, but lamenting the forecast for getting your hopes up and then dashing them is something for school children, not grown men
    Last edited by MakeItStop; Jul 27, 2014 at 06:11 PM.