"Vortex message from Recon a little while ago confirms a closed surface circulation with maximum winds of about 40-45 MPH. If 93L doesn't open up into nothing more than a vigorous wave, which it may very well end up doing if convection doesn't begin building back up, and soon, then odds favor Tropical Storm Bertha being declared prior to its passage through or by the Antilles.
Some of the key stats from the Vortex
Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 19:59:50Z
Center Fix Location: 417 miles (671 km) to the ESE (103°) from Bridgetown, Barbados
Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F)
Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F)
In addition to the WC-130 which penetrated the center multiple times, the Gulfstream (G-IV) has been sampling the air all around 93L today. Combined, the data from both of these missions will be fed into the models and coming runs should be much better for it. "
Hate to be a pessimist, but I am getting the gut feeling that 93L is fading. Not good for my summertime blues on the beach considering the last swell was Arthur that we enjoyed in SC. This system needs help from aloft meaning lack of wind shear to stand a chance to advance to the next level. Time will tell.
This is aggravating as one report in the last couple hours states winds are up to 45 and it's inevitable for a TS then another report from a different source 4 hours ago says the jury is still out from that dry Saharan air. Isn't it already technically a TD and swiftly approaching TS? Did Bertha from BelMa blow her load prematurely?
Where's da waves Lebowski???
FLY A BANNER ALSO FOR THE NEXT INVEST HOT ON BIG BERTHA'S HEELS