The area of low pressure in the middle of the Atlantic (Invest 93-L) remains well organized but thunderstorms have been largely absent for much of the day. Although tempting to chalk this up to the presence of dry air, the disturbance has been riding south within a modestly humid environment, as shown by mid-level water vapor satellite. A bigger factor is likely the upper 70 and near 80 degree ocean waters (much cooler than average) that are helping to enhance stability near the circulation, thereby capping the growth to thunderstorms.
A recent satellite pass shows a closed circulation but the winds around that circulation remain weak. If thunderstorms redevelop near or over the circulation, the small uptick in winds would likely make this a Tropical Depression, so development odds are still high. That said, weather models are backing off earlier, more aggressive forecasts and the environment ahead now looks only somewhat conducive to strengthening.
(MORE: Latest on Potential Atlantic Development)
The steering will take the system toward the Lesser Antilles by this weekend, but the strength of the system will dictate whether it takes a more northerly (stronger) or southerly (weaker) track.
Bottom line: some good news in the trends but near term development odds remain high.