TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014
The latest from NOAA on this invest looks promising enough to start gnashing the teeth, salivating, and getting excited about-- and it's def August here in Florida, with 93F heat, warm ocean , unstable air, and the daily 3pm Apocalypse--
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
I feel it coming. It feels like the Mean Season the past week.
"A tropical wave east of the Caribbean, although likely not to develop in the short term, has a moderate chance later in the week. 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.
The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.
Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions. "